重大城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故定量分析方法研究——以湖北十堰“6·13”事故为例  

Research of quantitative analysis approach for serious leakage and explosion accident of urban gas pipeline——a case study of“6·13”accident

作　　者：孙逸林 郑小强[1] 刘险峰[1] 周密 王冶 李洪兵 郭向国[5] SUN Yi-lin;ZHENG Xiao-qiang;LIU Xian-feng;ZHOU Mi;WANG Ye;LI Hong-bing;GUO Xiang-guo(School of Economics and Management,Southwest Petroleum University,Chengdu 610500,China;Chuandong Drilling Company,Chuanqing Drilling Engineering Co.,Ltd.,China National Petroleum Corporation,Chongqing 400021,China;Sichuan Chuangang Group Corporation,Southwest Oil&Gas Field Company,China National Petroleum Corporation,Chengdu 610000,China;College of Engineering,Sichuan Normal University,Chengdu 610101,China;Capital Construction Department,Dongying Vocational Institute,Dongying 257091,Shandong,China)

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,成都610500 [2]中石油川庆钻探工程有限公司川东钻探有限公司,重庆400021 [3]中石油西南油气田分公司四川川港燃气有限公司,成都610000 [4]四川师范大学工学院,成都610101 [5]东营职业学院基建处,山东东营257091

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2022年第6期3312-3320,共9页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：西南石油大学杰出人才项目(2018RW005);西南石油大学天然气行业系统决策与运营管理创新团队科研项目(2019CXTD12)。

摘　　要：为深入探讨重大城市燃气管道泄漏爆炸事故致因的属性特征,有效预防和控制事故,集成系统理论事故模型与过程(System Theoretic Accident Modeling and Process,STAMP)方法和复杂网络构建分析框架。运用STAMP模型详细分析事故,建立安全控制结构,据此逐级辨识事故致因;将事故致因及其逻辑关系转化为复杂网络的节点和边,并建立事故网络拓扑结构;通过平均路径长度、聚类系数、度和PageRank值等参数定量分析事故致因性质,确定关键影响因素;以湖北十堰“6·13”事故为例进行分析。结果表明:政府安全生产理念与属地责任未贯彻落实、安全生产监管工作严重失察等是事故的客观深层根源;燃气公司和物业公司等企业未落实安全生产主体责任和安全生产监督指导不力是事故的主观关键致因;应从政府部门、燃气公司和物业公司等方面采取多元协同的风险防控措施;STAMP-复杂网络集成方法能够有效地刻画事故系统及致因特性,是STAMP模型的有益补充。To explore the attribute characteristics of factors causing serious leakage explosion accidents of urban gas pipelines,we propose a new quantitative analysis method.This method combines the system-theoretic accident modeling and process(STAMP)framework with the complex network(CN)theory.Firstly,we apply the STAMP model to analyze the accident in detail and then establish the safety control structure to identify the causal factors.Secondly,causal factors and their logical relationship are translated into nodes and edges in the complex network respectively to establish the accident network.Thirdly,we choose four parameters to quantitatively analyze the attribute characteristics of the accident system and causal factors to identify the key factors.These four parameters include the average path,the clustering coefficient,the degree value,and the PageRank value.Finally,we take the“6·13”accident that happened in Shiyan,Hubei Province as an example to build an accident network.From this accident,33 causal factors are identified based on the STAMP model and this accident network consists of 33 nodes and 253 directed edges.The analysis results show that:(1)The safety production concept and territorial responsibility of local government departments have not been implemented and the ineffective supervision and guidance of safety production are the objective and deep root causes of the accident;(2)Gas company and property company failed to implement their main responsibility of safety production and the ineffective supervision and guidance of safety production are the subjective key factors of the accident;(3)Target measures should be taken from the perspective of local government and relevant companies to jointly prevent the recurrence of accidents;(4)The conclusion shows that the STAMP-Complex Network approach not only describe the accident system and its attribute characteristics effectively but also is a useful supplement for the STAMP model.

关 键 词：公共安全 城市燃气管道 泄漏爆炸 事故分析 系统理论事故模型与过程(STAMP) 复杂网络 

分 类 号：X928[环境科学与工程—安全科学] X937