2010—2019年湖北省水痘流行病学特征及发病趋势预测分析  

Epidemiological characteristics and incidence trend prediction of varicella in Hubei Province,2010-2019

作　　者：唐丽 黄淑琼[2] 蔡晶[2] 涂画[2] TANG Li;HUANG Shu-qiong;CAI Jing;TU Hua(Hubei Provincial Standardized Training Program Base for Public Health Physicians/Community Health Service Center of Shouyi Street,Wuchang District,Wuhan City,Wuhan,Hubei 430060,China;Hubei Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Wuhan,Hubei 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]湖北省公卫医师规范化培训项目基地/武汉市武昌区首义路街社区卫生服务中心,湖北武汉430060 [2]湖北省疾病预防控制中心,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2023年第1期1-4,共4页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：湖北省卫生健康委面上项目(WJ2021M206)。

摘　　要：目的分析湖北省2010—2019年水痘流行特征并预测短期发病趋势,为水痘防控工作提供一定的科学依据。方法采用描述性分析、Spearman秩相关分析、聚类分析、季节指数模型进行分析和预测。结果2010—2019年湖北省水痘年均发病率为46.06/10万,与年份存在显著正相关关系(rs=0.842,P=0.010);发病高峰期在5—6月和10月至次年1月;全省各地区发病率间差异有统计学意义(χ2=50591.454,P<0.001),聚类分析(F=31.954,P<0.001)按年均发病率的严重程度将湖北省17个市州分为两类;0~14岁儿童为高发人群,职业分布以学生、幼托儿童、散居儿童为主,男性发病率高于女性(χ2=2943.978,P<0.001);拟合的季节指数模型为Xt1=(2.185+0.025t)×St1,MRE为8.65%;预测2020年发病率,除2—8月份,其他月份预测值与实际值的MRE=28.02%。结论2010—2019年湖北省水痘发病水平总体呈上升趋势;发病呈双峰分布;以学生为主要发病群体;男性发病率高于女性;发病主要集中在以神农架林区为主的鄂西北地区;季节指数模型在水痘发病趋势预测中适用性较好。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019,to predict the short-term incidence trend,and to provide a certain scientific basis for varicella prevention and control.Methods Descriptive analysis,Spearman rank correlation analysis,cluster analysis and seasonal index model were used for analysis and prediction.Results The annual average incidence rate of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019 was 46.06/100,000,which was significantly and positively correlated with the years(rs=0.842,P=0.010).The peak period of incidence was May-June and October-January of the following year.There were statistically significant differences in the incidence rates among the regions of the province(χ2=50,591.454,P<0.001).According to the severity of annual average incidence rates,17 cities and prefectures in Hubei Province were divided into two categories by cluster analysis(F=31.954,P<0.001).Children aged 0-14 years were a high-risk group.Occupational distribution showed that most patients were students,children in kindergartens and scattered children.The incidence rate of males was higher than that of females(χ2=2,943.978,P<0.001).The fitted seasonal index model was Xt1=(2.185+0.025t)×St1,with the mean relative error(MRE)of 8.65%.As for predicting the incidence rates in 2020,the MRE between the predicted value and the actual value in other months except February-August was 28.02%.Conclusion The incidence level of varicella in Hubei Province from 2010 to 2019 generally showed an upward trend.The incidence presented a bimodal distribution.Students were the main incidence group.The incidence rate was higher in males than in females.The incidence was concentrated in the northwestern area of Hubei Province,mainly in Shennongjia forest area.The seasonal index model has a good applicability in predicting the incidence trend of varicella.

关 键 词：水痘 流行特征 发病趋势 预测 

分 类 号：R511.5[医药卫生—内科学]