农机融资租赁承租人偿付意愿博弈分析  

Game Analysis of Lessee's Willingness to Pay for Agricultural Machinery Finance Lease

作　　者：郑育峰 许健 ZHENG Yu-feng;XU Jian(School of Economics and Management,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China)

机构地区：[1]中国科学院大学经济与管理学院,北京100190

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2022年第12期112-126,共15页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：农业现代化是全面推进乡村振兴的重要内容,而农业机械化是农业现代化的基础.农机融资租赁作为一种特殊的融资方式,可以降低农民实现农业机械化的资金门槛,为农业机械化提供金融助力,从而加速实现我国农业现代化.要保持农机融资租赁的可持续健康发展,关键在于控制好信用风险.农机融资租赁信用风险可以归为因为承租人偿付能力和承租人偿付意愿而产生的两大类.从提炼典型案例分析入手,通过构建基础博弈模型进行混合策略求解、动态博弈分析经过子博弈精炼纳什均衡求解,以及无限次重复博弈分析,对承租人偿付意愿的影响因素进行了研究.研究发现:承租人偿付意愿与承租人收益和出租人惩罚成本成正比,与出租人收益和承租人违约成本成反比;承租人偿付意愿和租赁物购置价格(S)、租赁物的折损率(Ø)、承租人已经支付租金中的购买部分(K)及出租人收益(R)有关,理性承租人有偿付意愿的条件为K>tR+tØS(t为期数);在农机融资租赁重复博弈中,针锋相对策略比冷酷策略在现实交易中更有利.为此,提出了与承租人建立长期合作关系、将承租人违约记录纳入社会公开体系以及完善农村社会征信体系的建议.Agricultural modernization is an important part of comprehensively promoting rural revitalization,and agricultural mechanization is the foundation of agricultural mod-ernization.As a special financing method,agricultural machinery financial lease can reduce the capital threshold for farmers to realize agricultural mechanization,provide financial as-sistance for agricultural mechanization,and thus accelerate the realization of agricultural modernization in China.To maintain the sustainable and healthy development of agricul-tural machinery financial leasing,the key is to control the credit risk.The credit risk of financial leasing of agricultural machinery can be divided into two categories because of lessee's solvency and lessee's willingness to pay.This paper begins with the analysis of typi-cal cases,and studies the influencing factors of the lesse's willingness to pay by building a basic game model to solve the mixed strategy,dynamic game analysis to solve the sub-game refined Nash equilibrium,and infinite repeat game analysis.The results show that the will-ingness of the lessee to pay is directly proportional to the benefit of the lessee and the penalty cost of the lessor,but inversely proportional to the benefit of the lessor and the default cost of the lessee.The lessee's willingness to pay is related to the purchase price(S)of the leased property,the loss rate(Ø)of the leased property,the purchase part(K)of the rent already paid by the lessee and the lessor's income(R).The condition that the rational lessee has the willingness to pay is K>tR+TØS(t is a number of years).In the repeated game of agricultural machinery finance lease,tit-for-tat strategy is more advantageous than cold strategy in real transactions.Therefore,some suggestions are put forward,such as establish-ing long-term cooperative relationship with lessee,incorporating lessee's default record into social disclosure system and perfecting rural social credit system.

关 键 词：农机融资租赁 信用风险 偿付意愿 博弈 

分 类 号：F832.49[经济管理—金融学] F426.4