城市绿色交通公共设施资金规模预测与融资模式研究  

Capital Demand Forecast and Financing Mode of Urban Green Transportation Public Facilities

作　　者：张毅[1] 梅亚凤 ZHANG Yi;MEI Ya-feng(China Academy of Transportation Sciences,Beijing 100029,China;School of Transportation,Beijing Jiaotong University,Beijing 100044,China)

机构地区：[1]交通运输部科学研究院,北京100029 [2]北京交通大学交通运输学院,北京100044

出　　处：《交通运输研究》2022年第6期129-138,共10页Transport Research

摘　　要：为保障城市交通绿色公共设施的供给,推动新型城镇化绿色低碳发展,分析了未来城市绿色交通公共设施的资金需求和相应的融资模式,建模预测了我国“十四五”期间城市绿色交通各类公共设施资金需求并提出了对应的融资模式。基于公共产品理念和绿色效益属性特征界定了城市绿色交通公共设施的概念和范围,根据现状趋势推演和相关规划中的核心参数构建了绿色公共设施供给需求的时间序列预测方法,并对包含轨道交通、新能源公交车、新能源设施及共享单车等主要城市绿色交通公共设施类别的资金规模进行了预测。结果显示,“十四五”期间绿色交通公共设施投资规模在33240.10亿~42 008.23亿元。结合各类城市绿色交通公共设施的属性特征,建议利用不同融资模式引入多元化的绿色资金供给,推进城市绿色交通基础设施与绿色金融的融合发展。In order to guarantee the urban transportation green public facilities, promote the green and lowcarbon development of new urbanization, this paper analyzes the capital demand and corresponding financing modes of urban green transport public facilities in the future, constructs a model and forecasts the capital demand of various urban green transport public facilities in China during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, and puts forward some corresponding financing modes. The concept and range of urban green transport public facilities are defined based on the concept of public goods and the characteristics of green benefits attributes. According to the current trend deduction and the core parameters in the relevant planning, a time series forecasting method for the supply and demand of green public facilities is constructed. Finally, the capital scale of major urban green transportation public facilities including rail transit,new energy buses, new energy facilities and shared bicycles is predicted. The results show that during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, the investment in green transportation public facilities is3324.010 billion~4200.823 billion CNY. Combing the attribute characteristics of various urban green transportation public facilities, it is suggested to use different financing modes to introduce diversified green capital supply, so as to promote the integrated development of urban green transport infrastructure and green finance.

关 键 词：城市绿色交通 公共设施 资金需求 融资模式 绿色金融 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]