玛纳斯河不同峰量组合下的融雪洪水风险分析  

Risk analysis of snowmelt flood under different combination of flood peaks and flood volumes in Manas River

作　　者：何朝飞 王晓云[2] 陈伏龙[1] 唐豪 龙爱华[1,3] HE Chaofei;WANG Xiaoyun;CHEN Fulong;TANG Hao;LONG Aihua(College of Water Conservancy&Architectural Engineering,Shihezi University,Shihezi 832000,China;China Water Resources Beifang Investigation,Design and Research Co.,Ltd.,Tianjin 300222,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]石河子大学水利建筑工程学院,新疆石河子832000 [2]中水北方勘测设计研究有限责任公司,天津300222 [3]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2023年第1期15-21,35,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(52169005,51769029);石河子大学高层次人才科研启动资金(RCZK2018C23)。

摘　　要：以玛纳斯河肯斯瓦特出山口水文站控制流域为研究区,考虑变异条件下的频率结构特征,基于Copula函数建立洪水峰量联合分布,推求各峰量相互作用下的风险概率,构建了风险评估模型。结果表明:混合分布能较好地反映变异条件下的洪水变量频率分布;基于Gumbel Copula函数建立的峰量联合分布能很好地描述洪水组合特性。在玛纳斯河500年一遇峰量两变量防洪设计标准下,联合风险与同现风险均达到最小值,洪水发生概率较低,因此选择频率较为接近的峰量设计标准,既能保证洪水发生的低风险概率,又符合工程险情的实际需要。Taking the control basin of the Kenswat hydrological station of the Manas River as the study area, considering the frequency structure characteristics under variation conditions, the joint distribution of flood peaks and flood volumes was established based on Copula function, and the risk probability under the interaction between each flood peak and flood volume was calculated to build the risk assessment model. The results show that the mixed distribution can better reflect the frequency distribution of flood variables under the condition of variation. The flood combination characteristics can be well described by the joint distribution of flood peak and flood volume based on Gumbel Copula function. Under the 500-year flood control design standard of the Manas River flood peak and flood volume, the joint risk and co-occurrence risk both reach the minimum value, and the probability of flood occurrence is low. Therefore, the design standard of flood peak and flood volume with relatively close frequency can not only ensure the low risk rate of flood occurrence, but also meet the actual needs of project hazards.

关 键 词：融雪洪水 风险分析 非一致性 混合分布 联合概率分布 COPULA函数 玛纳斯河 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]