南水北调中线工程冬季输水冰情风险研究  

Study on risk of sudden ice conditions in winter for Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project

作　　者：练继建[1,2] 杨德明[1,2] 赵新 LIAN Jijian;YANG Deming;ZHAO Xin(State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China;School of Civil Engineering,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300350,China)

机构地区：[1]天津大学水利工程仿真与安全国家重点实验室,天津300072 [2]天津大学建筑工程学院,天津300350

出　　处：《水利水电科技进展》2023年第1期63-70,共8页Advances in Science and Technology of Water Resources

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51909186,U20A20316)。

摘　　要：针对南水北调中线工程冬季输水冰情的安全运行问题,以南水北调中线工程河北段为研究对象,以热平衡理论为出发点推导出目标单元渠段的整体总热量变化公式;采用单因素局部分析法选出风险评价指标,基于概率论构建了风险评价指标之间的联合概率密度函数,将气象事件发生概率、热量变化率与冰情风险等级一一对应,从而对渠道冰情进行风险评估。对2021年1月6—8日南水北调中线工程河北段输水渠道冰情风险分析结果表明:在整个热交换过程中,短波辐射、蒸发和对流热交换是影响热量变化的主要因素,且夜间渠道的热量散失明显大于白天,加大了夜间发生冰情的风险;沙河节制闸—渠末段虽然与其他渠段风险等级一样,但其单位面积热量损失明显高于其他渠段,接近于极高风险,应加强对该渠段的实时监测并做好冰情防护。Aiming at the problem of ice conditions in winter for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, taking the Hebei section of the project as the research object, the formula of overall total heat variation of canal sections of the target unit was derived through the theory of heat balance. The single factor local analysis method was used to select the evaluation index. Then, based on the idea of probability theory, the joint density function between evaluation indexes was built, and the probability of meteorological events, change rate of total heat change, the risk level of ice conditions was correlated, so as to carry out the risk assessment of ice conditions in channels. The risk analysis results of ice conditions in Hebei section of the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project from January 6th to 8th in 2021 show that, in the whole process of heat exchange, the short-wave radiation, evaporation and convection are the main factors, and the heat loss in the channel at nights is significantly greater than that in the daytime, which increases the risk of sudden ice conditions at nights. In addition, although the risk level of Shahe gate-terminal section is the same as that of other sections, its heat loss per unit area is obviously higher than that of other sections, and it is close to extremely high risk. In practice, real-time monitoring should be strengthened and relevant protection measures should be taken for this section.

关 键 词：冬季输水 冰情风险 热平衡理论 概率分析 联合概率密度函数 南水北调中线工程 

分 类 号：TV698[水利工程—水利水电工程]