气候变化下水文模拟不确定性若干问题讨论  

Discussion on several issues of uncertainty in hydrological simulation under climate change

作　　者：张力 赵自阳 王红瑞[1] 杨亚锋 李晓军 ZHANG Li;ZHAO Ziyang;WANG Hongrui;YANG Yafeng;LI Xiaojun(College of Water Science,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China;College of Sciences,North China University of Science and Technology,Tangshan 063210,China;Jinan Water Conservancy Engineering Service Center,Jinan 250099,China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学水科学研究院,北京100875 [2]华北理工大学理学院,河北唐山063210 [3]济南市水利工程服务中心,山东济南250099

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第1期109-118,149,共11页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：北京师范大学博一学科交叉项目(BNUXKJC2124);北京市自然科学基金(8222057);国家自然科学基金(52279005);济南市水务科技项目(JNSWKJ202001)。

摘　　要：在阐释水文不确定性定义的基础上,根据气候变化下水文模拟不确定性的分类,总结了气候变化情景、水文模型和评估过程方面不确定性研究的基本范式,概述了每种不确定性的来源及影响,综述了气候变化下水文模拟不确定性研究进展。指出了未来水文系统模拟不确定性研究的重点和方向:结合复杂网络,增强对极端气候事件预估的可靠性;科学处理数据时间窗问题和冗余性,为无资料地区径流预测提供支撑;揭示变化环境下非平稳异方差性水文序列的发生规律。Based on the definition of hydrologic uncertainty and the classification of hydrologic simulation uncertainty under climate change,the basic paradigms of uncertainty research in climate change scenarios,hydrological models and assessment processes are summarized.The sources and impacts of each uncertainty are summarized,and the research progress of hydrological modeling uncertainty under climate change is summarized.The emphasis and direction of future research on the uncertainty of hydrological system simulation are prospected,which includes combining complex networks to enhance the reliability of extreme weather event prediction,scientifically deal with the problem of data time window and redundancy to provide support for runoff prediction in areas without data,and to reveal the occurrence law of non-stationary heteroscedasticity hydrological series under changing environment.

关 键 词：气候变化 水文系统 水文模拟 水文模型 评估过程 不确定性 

分 类 号：TV124[水利工程—水文学及水资源]