长江上游径流对气象要素变化的敏感性分析  

Sensitivity analysis of annual runoff to annual variation of meteorological elements in upper reaches of the Yangtze River

作　　者：沈嘉聚 杨汉波[2,3] 刘志武 杨大文[2,3] SHEN Jiaju;YANG Hanbo;LIU Zhiwu;YANG Dawen(Academy of Science and Technology,China Three Gorges Corporation,Beijing 100038,China;Department of Hydraulic Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China;State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]中国长江三峡集团有限公司科学技术研究院,北京100038 [2]清华大学水利水电工程系,北京100084 [3]清华大学水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室,北京100084

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第1期119-126,共8页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2021YFC3000202);中国长江三峡集团有限公司科研项目(202003098);国家自然科学基金重大项目(41890821);水沙科学与水利水电工程国家重点实验室自主课题(2021-KY-04)。

摘　　要：选取长江上游8个主要水文站(直门达、石鼓、屏山、高场、北碚、寸滩、武隆、宜昌)控制流域作为子流域,利用其1979—2015年径流及气象数据,采用机器学习方法计算径流对降水与气温变化的敏感性,并与多元线性回归法和Budyko框架法进行对比,分析降水与气温变化对径流变化的贡献。结果表明:1979—2015年8个子流域径流与降水变化趋势整体不显著(p=0.01),气温呈显著上升趋势(p<0.01);径流对降水、气温的敏感性系数均值范围分别为0.37~0.76 mm/mm、-4.77~-33.53 mm/℃;径流对降水、气温的敏感性系数随着干旱指数的增大而减小;在干旱指数大的子流域降水变化对径流变化的影响更大,在干旱指数小的子流域气温变化对径流变化的影响更大。The control basins of 8 major hydrologic stations(Zhimenda,Shigu,Pingshan,Gaochang,Beibei,Cuntan,Wulong,Yichang)in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River are selected as sub basins.Using their runoff and meteorological data from 1979 to 2015,the machine learning method was used to calculate the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature,compared with the multiple linear regression method and the Budyko framework method,and further analyzed the contribution of precipitation and temperature changes to runoff changes.The results showed that the change trends of runoff and precipitation were not significant(p=0.01),and the temperature showed a significant upward trend(p<0.01)from 1979 to 2015.The average range of sensitivity coefficients of runoff to precipitation and temperature was 0.37~0.76 mm/mm and-4.77~-33.53 mm/℃,respectively.The sensitivity coefficient of runoff to precipitation and temperature decreases with the increase of drought index.The impact of precipitation change on runoff change is greater in the sub basin with large drought index,and the impact of temperature change on runoff change is greater in the sub basin with small drought index.

关 键 词：径流变化 降水 气温 敏感性系数 机器学习 Budyko框架 长江上游 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]