1956—2018年太湖流域降水统计特征及演变趋势  

Precipitation statistical characteristics and evolution trend in Taihu Lake Basin from 1956 to 2018

作　　者：许钦[1,2,3] 叶鸣 蔡晶 刘露霖 林晓清 XU Qin;YE Ming;CAI Jing;LIU Lulin;LIN Xiaoqing(State Key Laboratory of Hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210098,China;Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development,Nanjing 210098,China;Hydrology and Water Resources Department,Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute,Nanjing 210029,China;College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)

机构地区：[1]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098 [2]长江保护与绿色发展研究院,江苏南京210098 [3]南京水利科学研究院水文水资源研究所,江苏南京210029 [4]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水资源保护》2023年第1期127-132,173,共7页Water Resources Protection

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(51879163,51779146)。

摘　　要：基于太湖流域133个代表性雨量站1956—2018年实测日降水资料序列,采用P-Ш型频率曲线、Mann-Kendall检验、Morlet小波分析等方法进行太湖流域及其水利分区降水演变趋势诊断及统计特征分析。结果表明:1956—2018年太湖流域年降水以0.557 mm/a的速率缓慢增长;太湖流域及其水利分区降水演变特征不一致,东南部平原区的降水波动大于西北部山丘区;各水利分区不同频率设计暴雨中百年一遇设计雨量空间分布差异性最大,其中最大7 d降水量表现最显著,最大3 d降水量次之,最大1 d降水量最弱;各水利分区年降水量的增长幅度不同,流域东北部变幅为每10 a 17.3~33.0 mm,西南部为每10 a 3.30~22.2 mm,整体呈自东向西逐渐减弱的趋势;太湖流域及其水利分区年降水呈现多尺度周期变化,35~62 a周期变化最显著。Based on the daily precipitation data series measured by 133 representative rainfall stations in the Taihu Lake Basin from 1956 to 2018,P-Шfrequency analysis,Mann-Kendall test method,Morlet wavelet method and other methods are used to diagnose the precipitation evolution trend and statistical characteristics analysis.The results show that the annual precipitation in the Taihu Lake Basin increases slowly at a rate of 0.557 mm/a from 1956 to 2018.The precipitation evolution characteristics of the Taihu Lake Basin and its water conservancy districts are inconsistent,and the precipitation fluctuations in the southeast plain area are greater than that in the northwest hilly area.The spatial distribution difference of design rainfall with 100 year return period is the largest among different frequency design rainstorms in each water conservancy district,with the largest 7d rainfall being the most significant,followed by the largest 3 d rainfall,and the largest 1 d rainfall being the weakest.The annual precipitation growth rate of each water conservancy district is different.The range in the northeast of the basin is 17.3~33.0 mm every 10 years,and that in the southwest is 3.30~22.2 mm every 10 years.The overall trend is gradually weakening from east to west.The annual precipitation in the Taihu Lake basin and its water conservancy subarea presents a multi-scale periodic change,with the most significant 35~62a periodic change.

关 键 词：降水量 降水特性 P-Ш频率曲线 MANN-KENDALL检验 MORLET小波分析 太湖流域 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]