1961-2019年广西喀斯特地区低温冻害时空变化规律  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Low Temperature Frost Damage in Karst Area of Guangxi from 1961 to 2019

作　　者：谢映 陈诚 陈燕丽 张悦[2] Xie Ying;Chen Cheng;Chen Yan-li;Zhang Yue(Guangxi Institute of Meteorological Sciences,Nanning,Guangxi 530022,China;College of Resources and Environmental Sciences,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西南宁530022 [2]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100094

出　　处：《广西农学报》2022年第5期74-80,共7页Journal of Guangxi Agriculture

基　　金：广西科技厅重点研发项目(项目编号:桂科AB20159022,桂科AB17292051);基本科研业务费重点项目(项目编号:2019Z010)。

摘　　要：【目的】探究广西喀斯特地区低温冻害的时空分布规律,为提高农业生产防灾减灾抗灾能力、优化地区产业布局提供科学决策。【方法】采用69个国家级气象观测站观测资料,选取1961—2019年59年逐日气象数据及地理信息数据,运用线性趋势拟合、GIS反距离加权空间插值、Mann-Kendall突变检验方法进行分析。【结果】结果表明:在时间序列上,近59年来气温总体呈上升趋势。其中最低气温和≤0℃低温有效积温均呈上升变化趋势,倾向率分别为0.41℃/10 a和0.51℃/10 a,≤0℃低温日数则出现下降趋势,倾向率为-0.38 d/10 a。在突变检验上,最低气温、≤0℃低温日数和≤0℃低温有效积温的突变特征具有同步性,均在80年代发生突变。在空间分布上,气温总体呈上升趋势,且随着纬度、海拔高度增加温度降低速度变慢。其中最低气温由南向北上升趋势变慢;≤0℃低温有效积温变化趋势由南向北上升趋势加快;≤0℃低温日数则由南向北下降趋势加快。【建议】低温冻害对喀斯特地区农业生产和生态修复具有较大影响,需加强对喀斯特地区低温冻害的相关研究,构建低温冻害指标体系,提高气象灾害监测预报预警能力。【Objective】To explore the temporal and spatial variation of low temperature frost damage in Karst area of Guangxi,so as to provide scientific decision-making for improving the disaster prevention,mitigation and resistance of agricultural production and optimizing the regional industrial layout.【Method】Based on the observation data of 69 national meteorological stations,the daily meteorological data and geographic information data from 1961 to 2019 were analyzed by linear trend fitting,Arc GIS spatial interpolation and Mann-Kendall mutation test.【Result】The result showed:(1)In terms of time series,the temperature showed an overall upward trend in the past 59 years.The minimum temperature and≤0℃effective accumulated temperature showed an upward trend,and the tendency rates were 0.41℃/10 a and 0.51℃/10 a,respectively.The number of days of low temperature with≤0℃showed a downward trend,and the tendency rate was-0.38 d/10 a;(2)In the mutation test,the mutation characteristics of the minimum temperature,the number of days with≤0℃low temperature and the effective accumulated temperature with≤0℃low temperature were synchronous,and the mutations occurred in the 1980s;(3)In terms of spatial distribution,the temperature showed an overall upward trend,and the temperature decreased slowly with the increase of latitude and altitude.The minimum temperature rose slowly from south to north.The trend of effective acaumuleted≤0℃low temperature had an accelerating upuard trend from south to north;the number of days of low temperature with≤0℃was opposite,and the change trend accelerated from south to north.【Conclusion】Low temperature frost damage has great influence on agricultural production and ecological restoration in Karst area.It is necessary to strengthen the research on low temperature frost damage in Karst area,construct the index system of low temperature frost damage and improve the ability of monitoring,forecasting and early warning of meteorological disasters.

关 键 词：低温冻害 喀斯特地区 时空变化 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]