“一带一路”沿线国FDI、国防支出与经济增长——基于空间关联视角的实证研究  

The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Defense Expenditure on Economic Growth of the Belt and Road Countries: An Empirical Study from the Perspective of Spatial Correlation

作　　者：侯娜[1] 王心怡 于艳丽 HOU Na;WANG Xin-yi;YU Yan-li(Institute of Defense Economics and Management,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081;National Defense Business Department,China International Engineering Consulting Corporation,Beijing 100048,China)

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国防经济与管理研究院,北京100081 [2]中国国际工程咨询有限公司国防业务部,北京100048

出　　处：《兰州大学学报（社会科学版）》2022年第5期27-42,共16页Journal of Lanzhou University（Social Sciences）

基　　金：北京市习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想研究中心项目“一带一路”的可持续发展机制研究:基于和平与经济的视角(20LLYJC053)。

摘　　要：“一带一路”沿线国的外国直接投资(FDI)、国防支出不仅通过各种异中有同的渠道与机制影响本国经济增长,也通过空间溢出效应影响毗邻国家及地区的经济增长,体现了“一带一路”经济与安全的相互关联。选取1997-2020年间36个“一带一路”沿线国家作为样本,基于经济及地理的相关性,利用不同的空间面板模型(SAR、SEM与SDM),研究了FDI、国防支出对经济增长的影响效应。研究发现沿线国的经济增长存在较大的空间关联性,沿线国的国防支出对该国与地区其他国家的经济增长均产生了阻碍作用,而FDI对本国经济增长的影响不显著却间接促进了其他沿线国的经济增长。研究还发现地理位置不同的沿线国其FDI与国防支出对经济增长的影响及空间溢出效应存在着一定的差异。The foreign direct investment(FDI) and defense expenditure of the Belt and Road(B&R) countries not only affect their own economic growth through similar but different channels and mechanisms, but also affect the economic growth of adjacent countries and regions through spatial spillover, reflecting the correlation of economy and security in the B&R countries. Based on the correlation between economy and geography, the present paper uses different spatial panel models(SAR, SEM and SDM) to study the effects of FDI and defense expenditure on economic growth of the sampled 36 B&R countries between 1997 and 2020. The results show that there is a great spatial correlation in economic growth of the B&R countries. Their defense expenditure hinders the economic growth of their own and other B&R countries, while their FDI has an insignificant impact on their economic growth but indirectly contributes to that of other B&R countries. Moreover,the impact of FDI and defense expenditure on economic growth and spatial effects somewhat vary from country to country out of different geographical locations.

关 键 词：“一带一路”倡议 外国直接投资(FDI) 国防支出 空间面板模型 空间关联 

分 类 号：F114[经济管理—国际贸易]