2014—2018年中国猩红热时空聚集性分析  

Spatial-temporal clustering of scarlet fever in China from 2014 to 2018

作　　者：袁璐 张元元 房明[2] 寇增强[2] 王在翔[1] YUAN Lu;ZHANG Yuan-yuan;FANG Ming;KOU Zeng-qiang;WANG Zai-xiang(不详;Weifang Medical University,Weifang,Shandong 261053,China)

机构地区：[1]潍坊医学院公共卫生学院,山东潍坊261053 [2]山东省疾病预防控制中心,山东济南250014

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2022年第22期4033-4038,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家科技重大专项(2018ZX10713003-002);山东省医药卫生科技发展计划项目(2019WS433);山东省自然科学基金青年项目(ZR2020QH298);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(21DSHJ10)。

摘　　要：目的分析2014—2018年中国猩红热的时空聚集性特征,探讨猩红热高发聚集特征,为各省制定猩红热防控措施提供理论依据。方法从公共卫生科学数据中心获取2014—2018年中国猩红热报告发病数据,采用空间自相关和时空扫描方法分析我国猩红热空间相关性和时空聚集性特征。结果猩红热发病率全年呈双峰分布,以春末夏初(5—6月)、秋末冬初(11—12月)为流行的高峰季节;2014—2018年中国猩红热存在空间正相关性(Moran I>0,P<0.05),“热点”地区主要位于我国华北和东北地区;时空扫描分析结果显示,一类聚集区位于我国华北和华东地区,包括北京市、天津市、河北省和山东省,聚集时间为2018年11—12月。结论2014—2018年中国猩红热存在显著的空间正相关性和时空聚集性,应加强对猩红热重点防制区域的防控管理。Objective To analyze the spatial and temporal clustering characteristics of scarlet fever in China from 2014 to2018 and to explore the characteristics of its high incidence,so as to provide theoretical basis for the formulation of scarlet fever prevention and control measures in various provinces.Methods The reported incidence data of scarlet fever in China from 2014 to 2018 were collected from public Health Science Data Center,and spatial autocorrelation and spatio-temporal scanning methods were used to analyze spatial correlation and spatio-temporal clustering characteristics of scarlet fever in China.Results The incidence of scarlet fever showed a bimodal distribution throughout the year,with the peak seasons of late spring and early summer(May-June)and late autumn and early winter(November-December).There was a positive spatial correlation of scarlet fever in China from 2014 to 2018(Moran’s I>0,P<0.05),and the“hot spots”were mainly located in North and Northeast China.Spatial-temporal clustering analysis showed that the first type of agglomerations was located at North and East China,including Beijing,Tianjin,Hebei,and Shandong provinces,and the agglomerations occurred from November to December of 2018.Conclusion There is a significant spatial positive correlation and temporal and spatial clustering of scarlet fever in China from 2014 to 2018.Prevention and control management of scarlet fever in key control areas should be strengthened.

关 键 词：猩红热 流行趋势 空间自相关 时空聚集 

分 类 号：R515.1[医药卫生—内科学] R181.3[医药卫生—临床医学]