货币调控模式与行业杠杆率调整:“言”与“行”的异质性诊断  

Monetary Regulation Mode and Industrial Leverage Adjustment:A Diagnosis on Heterogeneity between "Words" and "Deeds"

作　　者：王韧[1] 贾文浩 刘于萍 Wang Ren;Jia Wenhao;Liu Yupin

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学金融学院 [2]重庆工商大学金融学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2023年第1期27-39,共13页Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目“长江经济带绿色金融与生态资源的效率测度及耦合度研究”(21BTJ025)的资助。

摘　　要：借鉴文本词频分析构建货币调控的预期引导强度和实际操作频度指标体系,透过兼容性行业分类标准对货币调控“言”与“行”的行业杠杆率影响做了多维诊断,发现:(1)“前瞻性指引”有助于行业降杠杆,“相机抉择”操作则易引发“杠杆率悖论”问题;(2)提升调控意愿明确性和调控态度严厉性能增强预期引导效果,“建设型”的调控措施更利于缓解金融加速器效应;(3)保持货币调控“言行一致”能抑制相机抉择操作的负向加杠杆效应。由此,强化“前瞻性指引”较之“相机抉择”操作更利于货币政策的产业传导,同时也应通过增强预期引导明确性和推动金融市场制度建设克服金融市场摩擦效应,并借助“言行一致性”来改善实际调控效果,这是化解行业杠杆率调控过程中“杠杆率悖论”问题的关键。Throughout the construction of the agency indicator system of the expected guidance intensity and the actual operation frequency of monetary regulations and more compatible industry classification standards,the "words" and "deeds" of monetary regulation and the impact of their actual leverage ratios have been analyzed in multiple dimensions,and it is found that:(1) the "forwardlooking guidance" is more conducive to promoting the adjustment of the leverage ratio at the industry level,and the "camera choice"operation will cause the "leverage ratio paradox" problem because of the "financial accelerator" effect;(2) Improving the clarity of the expression of the willingness to regulate and the severity of the regulation attitude can enhance the expected guidance effect,and more "construction" rather than tightening" monetary operations are more conducive to alleviating the financial accelerator effect;(3) maintaining the "consistency of words and deeds" in the process of monetary regulation and control can inhibit the negative plus leverage effect of actual monetary operations to a certain extent.Therefore,the "forward-looking guidance" function of strengthening monetary regulation and control is more conducive to improving the industrial transmission mechanism of monetary policy than the frequent operation of "camera choice",and at the same time,the friction effect of the financial market should be controlled by enhancing the clarity of the guidance of expectations and promoting the construction of the financial system,and the actual regulation effect should be improved by means of the "consistency of words and deeds" in the process of monetary regulation and control,which is also the key to overcoming the problem of "leverage ratio paradox" in the process of industry leverage regulation.

关 键 词：货币调控 前瞻性指引 相机抉择 异质性 

分 类 号：F832.5[经济管理—金融学]