中国排污权交易制度的政策效应研究  

A Study of the Policy Effects on China’s Emissions Trading System

作　　者：马晓钰[1,2] 李娜[1] 葛纯宝 MA Xiaoyu;LI Na;GE Chunbao(College of Economics and Management,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830046,China;Xinjiang Innovation Management Research Center,Xinjiang University,Urumqi Xinjiang 830046,China;School of Business,Nanjing University,Nanjing Jiangsu 210093,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆大学经济与管理学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学新疆创新管理研究中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]南京大学商学院,江苏南京210093

出　　处：《生态经济》2023年第2期188-200,共13页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“后计划生育时代新疆少数民族生育转变研究”(21XRK007);新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划项目“新疆人才逆向流动与人才体系建设研究”(XJEDU2021S1002)。

摘　　要：将2007年中国11个省市排污权有偿使用和交易试点作为准自然实验,评价了排污权交易制度的政策效应及背后的作用机理。基于2004—2017年中国281个地级市的面板数据,采用双重差分法并考虑内生性问题、选择性偏差、安慰剂和反事实检验后,实证研究发现:排污权交易制度会降低污染物排放,促进经济发展和提高能源利用效率,该效果主要通过绿色创新、市场化和政府干预三种媒介发挥作用。排污权交易制度政策效果在不同工业基地、不同资源型和不同地区城市呈现明显异质性,相比于老工业基地、非资源型城市和东、西部城市,该效果在非老工业基地城市、资源型城市和中部地区表现更为明显。该研究为评估中国排污权交易制度政策效应提供了经验证据,对加快实现污染减排和绿色发展提供了政策启示。The paper evaluates the policy effects and the mechanism behind the emissions trading system by using the 2007 pilot emission rights reimbursement and trading in 11 Chinese provinces and cities as a quasi-natural experiment.The paper employs a double-difference approach based on panel data from 281 prefectural-level cities in China from 2004-2017. After considering endogeneity issues, selectivity bias, placebo, and counterfactual tests, the empirical study finds that an emissions trading system reduces pollutant emissions, promotes economic development, and improves energy use efficiency and that this effect is mainly mediated through green innovation, marketization, and Government intervention works through three agents. The policy effect of the emissions trading system shows significant heterogeneity across industrial bases, resource-based and regional cities, and the result is more pronounced in non-old industrial bases, resourcebased cities, and central regions than in old industrial bases, non-resource-based cities, and eastern and western cities. The paper study provides empirical evidence for assessing the policy effects of China’s emissions trading system and policy insights for accelerating the realization of pollution reduction and green development.

关 键 词：排污权交易制度 污染减排 能源利用效率 经济增长 双重差分法 

分 类 号：X32[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X196