黄河流域水资源安全评价及时空格局  

Evaluation of Water Resources Security and Spatial⁃Temporal Pattern of Yellow River Basin

作　　者：张玉泽 王爽 ZHANG Yuze;WANG Shuang(Business School,University of Jinan,Jinan 250022,China;Shandong Institute of Standardization,Jinan 250014,China)

机构地区：[1]济南大学商学院,山东济南250022 [2]山东省标准化研究院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《人民黄河》2023年第1期25-29,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助项目(21CJL031)。

摘　　要：为评价黄河流域水资源安全水平,保障流域用水安全、实现水资源与经济社会协调发展,运用DPSIR模型,构建指标体系,对2005—2019年黄河流域水资源安全时空格局进行分析。结果表明:2005—2019年黄河流域水资源安全评价值呈波动上升趋势,水资源安全改善得益于状态和响应指标的提升;经济社会发展未能为水资源安全提供充分的保障,而是形成了压力,水资源一定程度上也对经济社会发展构成了约束;黄河流域水资源安全省(区)间差异性减小,整体形势不容乐观。青海水资源禀赋较好、水资源安全状态为Ⅳ级(较安全);陕西、内蒙古、山东经济相对发达、用水效率较高,水资源安全状态为Ⅲ级(中等安全);河南、甘肃、山西三省水资源安全由Ⅱ级(较不安全)改善为Ⅲ级(中等安全),仍有改善空间;宁夏水资源安全从Ⅰ级(不安全)演变为Ⅱ级(较不安全),水资源不能够满足国民经济和社会可持续发展的需要。未来应遵循“把水资源作为最大的刚性约束,以水而定、量水而行”的用水原则,努力提高流域水资源安全水平。In order to evaluate the level of water security in the Yellow River Basin, the DPSIR model was used to analyze the spatial andtemporal patterns of water security of the Yellow River Basin from 2005 to 2019. The results show that the water security assessment value ofthe Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating upward trend from 2005 to 2019. The improvement of water security is due to the improvement ofthe indicators in the state and response layers;economic and social development fails to provide sufficient guarantee for water security, butforms a pressure and water resources to a certain extent also constitute a constraint for economic and social development. The differencesamong provinces (regions) of water resources security in the Yellow River Basin are decreased and the overall situation is not optimistic. Thewater resources endowment is better and the water resources security status is Ⅳ (more secure) in Qinghai;Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia andShandong have a relatively developed economy and high water efficiency, the water resources security status is Ⅲ ( medium security);Henan, Gansu, Shanxi provinces water resources security is improved from Ⅱ (less secure) to Ⅲ (medium security) and there is still roomfor improvement;Ningxia water resources security evolves from Ⅰ (insecure) to Ⅱ (less secure), water resources cannot meet the needs ofnational economic and social sustainable development. In the future, we should follow the principle of “treating water resources as the biggestrigid constraint, taking water as the basis and measuring it” and strive to improve the level of water security in the basin.

关 键 词：水资源安全评价 DPSIR模型 熵值法 黄河流域- 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源] TV882.1