基于成功度的高速公路BOT+EPC项目后评价  

Post-evaluation of Expressway BOT+EPC Project Based on Success Degree

作　　者：彭丹 敖谷昌[1] 曹一铄 PENG Dan;AO Gu-chang;CAO Yi-shuo(School of Traffic&Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Changan Minsheng APLL Logistics Co.Ltd.,Chongqing 401120,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆长安民生物流股份有限公司,重庆401120

出　　处：《工程管理学报》2022年第6期72-77,共6页Journal of Engineering Management

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金面上项目(cstc2019jcyj-msxmX0786)。

摘　　要：与传统模式相比,高速公路BOT+EPC模式在融资、施工等方面都具有不可比拟的优势,但从项目投资到运营阶段易出现建设前后不一致的现象。结合成功度评价法全面高效、结论清晰的特点,构建高速公路BOT+EPC项目的成功度评价体系;采用灰色理论构建白化权函数,实现各级指标的量化;并通过层次分析法和灰色关联度确定指标权重,结合模糊综合法进行加权评分,计算项目成功度值,最终实现全面、多层次的项目后评价。KK高速公路实例结果表明,项目整体成功度为4.029,属于基本成功;但项目运行效果和效益的成功度仅为3.799,属于部分成功,主要原因是实际交通量低于预期所致,后期需提高财务部分的抗风险能力,重视类似BOT+EPC项目在决策阶段的研究深度。Compared with the traditional mode,expressway BOT+EPC mode has incomparable advantages in financing,construction,and other aspects,but it is prone to inconsistent phenomena before and after construction from project investment to operation stage.This paper constructs the success evaluation system of expressway BOT + EPC project by integrating the characteristics of the success evaluation method,which is comprehensive,efficient,and clear in its conclusions.Then,the whitening weight function is constructed based on grey theory to quantify the indexes.After that,the index weight are determined through the analytic hierarchy process and grey correlation degree.The project success value is calculated based on a comprehensive fuzzy method.Finally,the comprehensive and multi-level project post-evaluation is realized.KK expressway example results show that the project’s overall success is 4.029,belonging to the basic success.However,the success degree of the project operation effect and benefit is only 3.799,which belongs to partial success.The main reason is that the actual traffic volume is lower than expected.In the later stage,it is necessary to improve the anti-risk ability of the financial part and pay attention to the research depth of similar BOT+EPC projects in the decision-making stage.

关 键 词：高速公路 BOT+EPC 项目后评价 成功度评价 灰色理论 模糊综合评价 

分 类 号：U415.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]