山东区域性高温的变化特征及其对增暖的响应  

Variation Characteristics of Regional High-Temperature in Shandong and Its Response to Warming

作　　者：邹瑾 李君[3] 高理 孔祥宁 ZOU Jin;LI Jun;GAO Li;KONG Xiangning(Key Laboratoryof Meteorological DisasterPrevention and Mitigation of Shandong Province,Ji'nan 25003l;Shandong Provincial Climate Center,Ji'nan 250031;Zibo Meteorological Bureau,Shandong,Zibo 255000)

机构地区：[1]山东省气象防灾减灾重点试验室,济南250031 [2]山东省气候中心,济南250031 [3]山东省淄博市气象局,淄博255000

出　　处：《气象科技》2022年第6期802-811,共10页Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：山东省气象局科研项目(2021SDYD06)资助。

摘　　要：基于区域性高温天气过程等级划分标准,利用逐日最高气温资料,客观识别山东省区域性高温事件,并分析其时空分布和变化特征及其对气候增暖的响应。结果表明:1961—2020年山东省共发生了区域性高温154次,平均每年约2.6次,主要出现在6—7月;西部地区多,山区和沿海地区少;年际和年代际变化明显,发生了减少到增多的趋势变化,20世纪60年代至80年代显著减少,90年代中期之后开始增多,21世纪明显增多,持续时间、影响范围和过程强度明显增加增强。区域性高温对气候增暖响应显著,随着增暖加剧,年最晚出现时间明显推迟,频次也更多,持续时间更长,影响范围更大,强度更强,且更长更强的区域性高温事件也更容易发生。Based on the regional high-temperature process’s classification standards and by using the daily maximum temperature data,the regional high-temperature events in Shandong Province are objectively identified.The spatio-temporal distribution and variation characteristics of regional high-temperature events and their response to climate warming are also analyzed.The results show that there are 154 regional high-temperature events in Shandong Province from 1961 to 2020,with an average of about 2.6 times per year.These events,in general,occur from June to July.Over the space,regional high-temperature events are mainly distributed in the western region of Shandong Province and less in the mountainous and coastal areas.There are obvious inter-annual and inter-decadal changes in the occurence frequence of regional high-temperature events,with a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend.The occurence frequence of regional high-temperature events decrease significantly from the 1960 s to the 1980 s and increase after the mid-1990 s,with a significant increase in the 21 st century.These events’duration,region and intensity also increase and enhance significantly in the 21 st century.Regional high-temperature events have a significant response to climate warming.With the intensification of warming,the annual latest occurrence time of regional high temperature is obviously delayed.Regional high-temperature events become more frequent,longer and stronger,with a larger influence range.And the longer and stronger regional high-temperature events are also more likely.

关 键 词：区域性 高温事件 变化特征 增暖响应 

分 类 号：P466[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]