面向2035年我国能源发展的思考与建议  

China’s Energy Development for 2035:Strategic Thinking and Suggestions

作　　者：谢克昌[1] Xie Kechang(Chinese Academy of Engineering,Beijing 100088,China)

机构地区：[1]中国工程院,北京100088

出　　处：《中国工程科学》2022年第6期1-7,共7页Strategic Study of CAE

基　　金：中国工程院咨询项目“能源战略(2035)”(2019-ZD-20),“推进现代能源体系建设进程评估及发展战略研究”(2022-XZ-33)。

摘　　要：2035年前是我国基本实现社会主义现代化的关键时期,能源高质量发展是支撑经济社会可持续发展的先决条件,应立足基本国情和所处发展阶段,在保障能源安全供应的前提下推进能源清洁低碳转型。本文从能源总量、能源结构、综合能效、能源科技、体制机制、能源安全六方面阐述了我国能源发展现状,重点分析了未来一段时期内能源发展的关键问题,涵盖煤炭兜底保障作用、能源消费增量的可再生能源替代、油气供给安全、核电发展立足自主、氢能和储能全产业链规模化发展等。着眼2035年能源领域高质量发展,提出了能源革命,碳达峰、碳中和4个阶段的战略目标。研究建议,各环节全面落实节能优先方针,继续实施煤炭清洁高效低碳利用,站位全局谋划和推动可再生能源成为未来能源供应增量的主体,加快低碳转型并统筹构建多能互补能源系统。The period before 2035 is critical for China to realize socialist modernization.The high-quality development of its energy industry must consider basic national conditions and development stages.Moreover,promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of the energy industry while guaranteeing a stable energy supply is the prerequisite for ensuring the sustainable economic and social development.This study summarized the current status of China’s energy development from six aspects:energy capacity,energy structure,comprehensive energy efficiency,energy science and technology,system and mechanism,and energy security.The key issues of energy development were analyzed,focusing on the role of coal for guaranteeing energy security,replacement of traditional energies with renewable energies for incremental energy consumption,sustainable supply of oil and gas,independent development of nuclear power,and large-scale development of the hydrogen energy industry.Four stages were proposed for the energy revolution and carbon reduction in China by 2035.Furthermore,we suggest that energy conservation should be prioritized in all aspects,clean and efficient use of coal should be promoted,renewable energies should be the major source of future energy increment,and low-carbon transformation should be accelerated to create an energy system that features multi-energy complementation.

关 键 词：能源革命 能源安全 低碳转型 碳达峰、碳中和 煤炭清洁高效利用 

分 类 号：F407[经济管理—产业经济]