不确定性对资源性商品期货价格的影响——以“妖镍”事件为例  

The impact of uncertainty on the price of resource commodity futures from the“demon nickel”event

作　　者：盛红有 许贤丽[1] Sheng Hongyou;Xu Xianli(School of financial science and technology,Anhui business college,Wuhu Anhui 241003)

机构地区：[1]安徽商贸职业技术学院金融科技学院,安徽芜湖241002

出　　处：《北方经贸》2022年第12期50-54,共5页Northern Economy and Trade

基　　金：安徽省省级质量工程项目(2020mooc140);安徽商贸职业技术学院科研项目(2021KYR23)。

摘　　要：资源性商品期货市场的存在是为了对冲资源性企业运营风险,但在当前经济形势的不确定性事件频发的情况下,资源性企业若不能及时有效调整期货市场行动,则会出现巨大亏损。通过梳理传统资源性商品期货市场存在的必要性,采取比较静态博弈的方法分析在期货交易中,资源性企业与市场投机者的交易策略与博弈。研究发现:不确定性会冲击市场原有的利益分配格局,从而改变市场参与者的行动,进而影响资源性商品期货价格。针对这种不确定性,提出企业应动态调整交易策略、建立和完善我国期货市场等建议。The existence of resource commodity futures market is hedging the operational risk of resource enterprises. However,in the current situation of frequent uncertainty in the political and economic situation,resource-based enterprises will incur huge losses if they can not timely and effectively adjust the actions of the futures market. On the basis of combing the necessity of the existence of the traditional resource commodity futures market,the paper adopts the method of comparative static game to analyze the trading strategies of resource enterprises and market speculators in futures trading,determine the uncertainty,change the actions of market participants,and then affect the price of resource commodity futures. In view of this uncertainty,the paper puts forward corresponding policies and suggestions for the establishment and improvement of China’s futures market and enterprise trading strategies.

关 键 词：不确定性 资源性商品 期货价格 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]