厄尔尼诺-南方涛动影响下月尺度水文模型参数可移植性  

Parameter Transferability of Monthly Scale Hydrological Model Influenced by El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation

作　　者：陈浩 许月萍[1] 郑超昊 郭玉雪 CHEN Hao;XU Yueping;ZHENG Chaohao;GUO Yuxue(Civil Engineering and Architecture,Zhejiang University,Hangzhou 310058,China;School of Water Conservancy and Environment Engineering,Zhejiang University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州310058 [2]浙江水利水电学院水利与环境工程学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《同济大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第1期75-82,共8页Journal of Tongji University:Natural Science

基　　金：浙江省重点研发计划(2021C03017);浙江省自然科学基金(LZ20E090001);国家自然科学基金(91547106)。

摘　　要：以浙江省3个流域作为研究对象,采用两参数月水量平衡模型(XM模型)和四参数月水量平衡模型(ABCD模型),结合极大似然不确定性估计方法(GLUE)对水文模拟的不确定性区间进行估计,在此基础上,研究不同模型在ENSO(厄尔尼诺-南方涛动)和不同流域地理情况下的参数移植能力。结果表明,厄尔尼诺时期的参数移植至拉尼娜时期,模型模拟效果要略好于拉尼娜时期的参数移植至厄尔尼诺时期;参数少的模型(XM模型)参数移植合格率要优于参数多的模型(ABCD模型);相邻流域间的参数移植效果要明显优于距离较远的流域;ABCD模型具有更好的空间可参数移植能力。This paper, taking three watersheds in Zhejiang Province as the study objects, uses two models, i.e., the monthly water balance model with two parameters(XM model) and four parameters(ABCD model) to analyze the interval characteristics of hydrological simulation uncertainty in combination with the multiple objective functions of the GLUE method. It studies and analyzes the parameter transferability of different hydrological models under ENSO(El Nino Southern Oscillation) and different basin geographical conditions.The results show that the simulation effect of parameter transferability from El Nino period to La Nina period is better than that from La Nina period to El Nino period, the pass rate of the model with fewer parameters(XM model)is better than that of the model with more parameter(ABCD model). In addition, the effect of parameter transferability between adjacent watersheds is significantly better than that of remote watersheds, and the ABCD model has a better ability for spatial scale parameter transferability.

关 键 词：水文模型 参数移植性 月尺度 ABCD模型 厄尔尼诺-南方涛动 

分 类 号：TV121.1[水利工程—水文学及水资源]