组织因素下建设安全演化博弈分析  

Evolutionary Game Model of Project Safety Management Based on Organizational Factors

作　　者：王壮 邢会歌[1] 李玥琳 李弘扬 蔡健敏[1] WANG Zhuang;XING Huige;LI Yuelin;LI Hongyang;CAI Jianmin(College of Architecture&Environment,Sichuan University,Chengdu 610065,China;Business School,Hohai University,Nanjing 211100,China;School of Civil Engineering&Transportation,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China;State Key Laboratory of Subtropical Building Science,South China University of Technology,Guangzhou 510641,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学建筑与环境学院,四川成都610065 [2]河海大学商学院,江苏南京211100 [3]华南理工大学土木与交通学院,广东广州510641 [4]华南理工大学亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室,广东广州510641

出　　处：《建筑经济》2022年第S02期167-172,共6页Construction Economy

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(B210201014);广东省哲学社会科学“十三五”规划2019年度一般项目(GD19CGL27);亚热带建筑科学国家重点实验室开放课题(2020ZB17)。

摘　　要：为降低工程施工安全事故发生概率,减少投资收益损失,在组织因素作用下构建管理方和施工方演化博弈模型,分析参数变化对演化过程的影响程度,获得影响博弈发展的关键因素,并通过数值模拟得到关键因素对博弈发展趋势的影响程度。结果表明:内部处罚、事故发生概率、罚款撤销、管理权威损失四项因素对工程安全影响较大,为考虑组织因素下影响工程安全博弈向最优解发展的关键因素,并由此提出控制工程施工安全的对策与建议。To reduce the probability of project accident and loss of investment,considering organization factor,the evolutionary game model between managers and builders is built to analyze the influence degree of parameter variation and obtain influential key factors of game development,and the influence of key factors on the development trend of the game is obtained through numerical simulation.The result shows that internal punishment,accident probability,cancellation of fine and loss of management authority have great influence on engineering safety,which is the key factor affecting the development of engineering safety game from the worst to optimal solution,and several measures for project safety management are presented accordingly.

关 键 词：组织因素 施工安全 演化博弈 策略选择 关键因素 

分 类 号：TU714[建筑科学—建筑技术科学]