基于蒙特卡洛的储能配置模式决策模型研究  

Research on Decision-making Model of Energy Storage Configuration Mode Based on Monte Carlo

作　　者：仲冉 吴洁 史纯子 翟瑞 ZHONG Ran;WU Jie;SHI Chunzi;ZHAI Rui(China Energy Construction Group Jiangsu Electric Power Design Institute Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 210000,China;MCC Huatian Engineering Technology Co.,Ltd,Nanjing 210000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国能源建设集团江苏省电力设计院有限公司,江苏南京210000 [2]中冶华天工程技术有限公司,江苏南京210000

出　　处：《建筑经济》2022年第S02期480-484,共5页Construction Economy

摘　　要：在双碳背景下,配置一定比例的储能成为解决新能源发电项目出力不稳的主要方案,并且可以作为并网的前置条件。对比自建储能以及购买储能服务两种方案的全寿命周期成本,并考虑年租金单价、自建单位造价、单位经营成本以及折现率等风险因素,通过蒙特卡洛模拟方法进行建模,提出一种储能配置方式决策模型。Under the background of dual carbon,allocating a certain proportion of energy storage has become the main solution to solve the unstable output of new energy power generation projects,and can be used as a precondition for grid connection.Taking electrochemical energy storage as an example,this paper compares the life cycle cost of self-built energy storage and purchasing energy storage services.According to the annual rent unit price,self-built unit cost,unit operating cost,discount rate and other risk factors,the Monte Carlo simulation method is used to model,and a configuration mode decision-making model is proposed for new energy project investors.

关 键 词：全寿命周期成本 蒙特卡洛 储能 方案比选 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]