基于贝叶斯网络的电动垂直起降航空器运行风险研究  

Operation Risk of Electric Vertical Takeoff and Landing Aircraft Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：张晓全[1] 马晗 ZHANG Xiao-quan;MA Han(School of Safety Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学安全科学与工程学院,天津300300

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第36期16269-16276,共8页Science Technology and Engineering

摘　　要：为迎接电动垂直起降航空器的到来,降低平均无故障时间,对电动垂直起降(electric vertical takeoff and landing,eVTOL)航空器的一般运行场景和系统构成做出了分析,并从人为因素、设备因素、环境因素和其他因素中提取了可能的失效诱因;构建了失控坠地和空中碰撞的贝叶斯网络,并依据所建网络和通过不同专家得到的概率值计算控制失效情况下失控坠地和中间事件发生概率,然后进行反向推断,推演事故发生主要诱因。结果表明:电动垂直起降航空器正常运行发生事故的概率为9.648×10^(-7),其中,控制失效、飞控系统断电/故障是事故主要诱因,计算结果可为电动垂直起降航空器安全运行防控提供依据。In order to welcome the arrival of electric vertical takeoff and landing(eVTOL)aircraft and reduce the mean time between failures,the general operation scenarios and system composition of electric VTOL aircraft were analyzed,and the possible failure inducements were extracted from human factors,equipment factors,environmental factors and other factors.The Bayesian network of uncontrolled falling to the ground and air collision was constructed,and the probability of uncontrolled falling to the ground and intermediate events in the case of control failure was calculated according to the established network and the probability values obtained by different experts,and then the reverse inference was carried out to deduce the main inducement of the accident.The results show that the accident probability of normal operation of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft is 9.648×10^(-7),in which control failure and flight control system power failure/failure are the main causes of the accident.The calculation results can provide a basis for the prevention and control of the safe operation of electric vertical takeoff and landing aircraft.

关 键 词：电动垂直起降(eVTOL)航空器 运行场景 贝叶斯网络 风险分析 模糊集理论 

分 类 号：X949[环境科学与工程—安全科学]