基于组合模型的建筑触电事故人因失效分析  

Human Factor Failure Analysis of Construction Electrocution Accidents Based on Combination Model

作　　者：李珏[1] 陈菲菲 LI Jue;CHEN Fei-fei(School of Traffic and Transportation Engineering,Changsha University of Science&Technology,Changsha 410114,China)

机构地区：[1]长沙理工大学交通运输工程学院,长沙410114

出　　处：《科学技术与工程》2022年第35期15832-15840,共9页Science Technology and Engineering

基　　金：湖南省自然科学基金(2021JJ30744);湖南省教育厅科研项(20K011)。

摘　　要：为探究触电事故人因关联性,提出一种基于决策试验和评价实验(decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory,DEMATEL)、解释结构模型(interpretative structural modeling,ISM)、网络层次分析(analytic network process,ANP)的组合模型,对人因失误事故进行失效分析,客观确定各人因影响因素的重要程度。利用认知可靠性和失误分析方法(cognitive reliability and error analysis method,CREAM)对2012—2021年的192起建筑触电事故进行人因提取并分类,通过关联规则挖掘确定影响因素之间的相关性,生成置信度矩阵,再利用DEMATE-ISM明晰影响因素之间的层级作用路径与网络结构,构建多级递阶结构模型,最后通过ANP对模型中因素进行权重的确定。结果表明,具有较高权重的不完善的安全防护设施管理是根层影响因素,权重最高的决策失误、错过观察为表层直接影响因素,最易形成人因失误事故,必须对其进行严格把控,预防事故的发生。To explore the human-related correlation of electrocution accidents,a combination model based on decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL),interpretive structural model(ISM),analytic network process(ANP)was proposed,which objectively analyzed the failure of human factors accidents and determined the importance of each human factor.Firstly,based on the cognitive reliability and error analysis method(CREAM),the human factors of 192 construction electrocution accidents from 2012 to 2021 were extracted and classified.Secondly,a confidence matrix was generated by determining the correlation between the influencing factors through association rule mining,then a multi-level recursive structure model was built by clarifying the hierarchical action path and network structure between influencing factors based on DEMATE-ISM.Furthermore,the weights of factors in the model were determined through ANP.The results show that imperfect safety and security facilities management with high weight is the root layer influencing factor,and the decision errors and missed observations with the highest weight are the surface direct influencing factors,which are most likely to form human error accidents and must be strictly controlled.

关 键 词：触电事故 CREAM法 关联规则挖掘 DEMATEL-ISM-ANP组合模型 人因失效分析 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]