复杂社会技术系统下的重大道路客运事故致因分析  

Causation Analysis of Major Road Passenger Transport Crashes Under Complex Sociotechnical System

作　　者：左博睿 赏珂祺 张杰 余东波 赖宏智 刘佳伟 钱晓祥 ZUO Borui;SHANG Keqi;ZHANG Jie;YU Dongbo;LAI Hongzhi;LIU Jiawei;QIAN Xiaoxiang(Southwest Survey and Design Co.,Ltd.,China Railway Siyuan Group,Kunming 650200,China;Kunming Engineering Corporation Limited,Kunming 650051,China)

机构地区：[1]中铁四院集团西南勘察设计有限公司,昆明650220 [2]中国电建集团昆明勘测设计研究院有限公司,昆明650051

出　　处：《交通工程》2022年第6期7-13,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering

摘　　要：为预防道路客运系统事故的发生,采用基于系统理论的Accimap模型分析重大道路客运事故.首先分析道路客运系统特征,明确道路客运系统事故构成要素;其后基于Rasmussen风险管理理论建立道路客运系统层次体系,包含宏观政府层、地方政府及运管部门层、运输企业层、运输系统人员层及生产及技术资源层5个层次.以京昆“8·10”特别重大事故为例,建立道路客运事故Accimap模型,识别出40项事故致因并分析其交互路径.结果表明:事故发生是系统多层次、多维度因素失衡且耦合作用的结果,可基于竖向整合思想,采取系统性的干预和控制手段以预防事故发生;此外,Accimap模型可深入挖掘我国道路客运事故致因间相互关系,分析结果及提出的建议更具针对性.In order to prevent crashes in road passenger transport system,The Accimap model based on system theory is used to analyze the causes of major road passengercrashes.First,the characteristics of road passenger transport system are analyzed and the components of road passenger transport system crashes are clarfied.Then based on the Rasmussen risk management theory,a hierarchical system of road passenger transport is established,including five layers:macro-government,local government and transport management department,transport enterprise,transport system personnel,production and technical resource.Taking the Beijing-Kunming“8·10”crash as an example,an Accimap model of road passenger crash was established.A total of 40 crash causes are identified and their interaction paths are analyzed.The results show that the crash is the result of unbalance and coupling of multilevel and multidimensional factors in the system.Based on vertical integration,systematic intervention and control measures can be adopted to prevent them from happening.In addition,the Accimap model can deeply explore the relationship between the causes of road passenger crashes in China,and the analysis results and suggestions are more targeted.

关 键 词：重大道路客运事故 Rasmussen风险管理框架 Accimap 系统论事故模型 事故分析 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]