基于随机森林模型的农村能源消费影响因素分析——以江苏徐州为例  

Analysis of the Factors Influencing Rural Energy Consumption Based on Random Forest ModelJiangsu Xuzhou as an Example

作　　者：苏靖轲 明岗 

机构地区：[1]同济大学机械与能源工程学院,上海201804

出　　处：《中国能源》2022年第10期23-31,共9页Energy of China

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(编号:2018YFD1100702)。

摘　　要：本研究以江苏省徐州市棠张村为例,旨在分析经济发达地区农村家庭能源使用模式、相关影响因素及影响程度,并对农村地区沼气发展进行浅析.本论文依据实际调研结果,采用随机森林模型分析影响农村家庭能源消费和影响因素的梯队.结果表明,在调查的农村地区,"电力+沼气"是主要的家庭能源使用模式,但仍有6%左右村民使用煤、液化石油气、柴等能源.家庭人员对清洁能源的认知及家庭中常住老年人的数量对农村家庭能源使用模式影响最大,相反,家庭总年收入对家庭能源选择有一定影响,但并不起决定作用.故农村地区清洁能源的推广,应加强农村常住老年人对清洁能源的认识.This study aims to analyze energy use pattern of rural households,related influencing factors,degree of influence and biogas development in economically developed areas,taking the village of Tang Zhang in Xuzhou City,Jiangsu Province as an example.Based on the actual survey results,this report uses random forest model to analyze the echelon of factors affecting rural household energy consumption.The results show that"Electricity+Biogas"is the main mode of household energy consumption,but about 6%of villagers still use coal,liquefied petroleum gas,firewood and other energy in the rural areas surveyed.Household personnel's knowledge of clean energy and the number of resident elderly people in the household is the greatest influence on rural household energy use patterns;conversely,total annual household income have some influence but non-deterministic on household energy choice.Thus,the promotion of clean energy in rural areas should strengthen the awareness of the rural elderly on clean energy.

关 键 词：能源消费模式 影响因素 随机森林模型 

分 类 号：TK01[动力工程及工程热物理]