多种发电情景下高可靠度电力供应模式分析  

Electricity Supply Mode Analysis with Electricity Supply and Demand Balance by Multiple Power Generation Scenarios

作　　者：姜克隽 

机构地区：[1]中国宏观经济研究院能源研究所,北京100038

出　　处：《中国能源》2022年第10期40-47,共8页Energy of China

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“中国2030年前碳排放达峰行动方案研究”(编号:21ZDA085)。

摘　　要：碳中和目标下能源转型的一个重要特征是电气化水平明显提升,未来电力需求将明显加大,如何实现电力供需平衡成为我国未来能源安全的重要内容之一.本文选择了几个针对碳中和目标下发电情景中,以目前讨论认为会带来较大电力供应问题的高比例可再生能源和高比例非化石能源情景进行分析,结合IPAC模型分析到2050年电力部门的用电特征,分析供电曲线和用电负荷的可能匹配路径,给出可能实现电力供需平衡下电力供应的模式,以支持电力转型路线图的设计.从分析来看,可以预测的间歇性电源,以及一定比例基荷发电的支持,加上需求侧响应,能够实现电力供需平衡,但是需要多种技术和政策支撑.技术层面包括跨区特高压建设、光伏和风电短期预测技术、智能物联电力负荷调节技术等,政策层面则包括精细化的电力市场构建、灵活电力价格机制等.A major characteristic of energy transition with the carbon neutrality target is significant increase of electrification rate,the demand of electricity would increase largely in future.How to supply the large amount of electricity with supply and demand balance is one of key components of energy security in China.Recently there are many discussion about the new power system,with mainly focusing on concept design and structure description.This paper presents the possible mode of electricity supply,by reviewing selected power generation scenarios with carbon neutrality target,especially the high penetration of renewable energy power generation which is regarded as high risk power generation in the system.Output from IPAC modeling analysis with looking into the characteristics of electricity use devices,and the power supply curve,to find their way to match with each other,it is expected to support the discussion on new power system development.From the analysis,it is found that the flexible power generation sources,could be better forecasted,together with base load power generation from nuclear,hydropower,and some fossil fuel power generation,plus demand side response,it is possible to have an electricity supply and demand balance power supply system.However there is strong demand on multiple technical support and policies needs,such as ultra-high voltage transmission,short-term forecast technologies for wind and solar power generation,device based demand side adjustment with intelligent IT technologies,well designed electricity market,flexible electricity pricing signals.

关 键 词：电力系统 碳中和 能源转型 电力供需平衡 需求侧响应 

分 类 号：TM7[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]