环境规制对产业结构升级的影响--来自“2+26”城市的证据  

The Impact of Environmental Regulation on Industrial Structure Upgrading:The Evidence from“2+26”Cities

作　　者：郑祖玄[1] 李冰[1] 余萍[1] ZHENG Zu-xuan;LI Bing;YU Ping

机构地区：[1]河南大学经济学院

出　　处：《科学决策》2023年第1期1-17,共17页Scientific Decision Making

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(项目编号:17BJL079);河南省社科基金项目(项目编号:2020BJJ017);河南省教育厅人文社科项目(项目编号:2021-ZZJH-044)。

摘　　要：利用2010-2019年中国290个地级市面板数据和“2+26”城市大气污染防治政策作为“准自然实验”,分析了环境规制对产业结构升级的影响。我们通过倾向得分匹配双重差分法(PSM-DID)发现:①环境规制能显著促进产业结构高度化的量和质,但未促进代表产业结构合理化的泰尔指数;②环境规制对产业结构升级的影响存在明显的自然资源异质性,相对于非资源型城市,资源型城市面对更严格的环境规制时,在产业结构升级方面表现更差;③环境规制对产业结构升级的影响同样存在明显的区位异质性。东部发达城市在强环境规制条件下能够快速反应,以产业结构升级应对污染治理要求,而中西部城市受限于自身发展基础,较难快速完成这一目标;④进一步机制分析发现,环境规制作用于产业结构升级的路径主要有倒逼技术进步和外商投资两条,利用数据实证检验了这两条路径,为“波特假说”提供了新的证据,同时验证了与“污染避难所”相对的另一种观点。最后,从环境政策制定者、响应者两方出发,为实现产业结构优化升级提供了建议。This paper uses the panel data of 290 prefecture level cities in China from 2010 to 2019 and the“2+26 cities”air pollution prevention and control policy as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure.Using the propensity score matching difference in difference method(PSM-DID),we find:(1)Environmental regulation can significantly promote the quantity and quality of industrial structure upgrading,but it does not optimize the theil index,which represents the rationalization of the industrial structures;(2)The impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure has obvious heterogeneity of natural resources.The resource-dependent cities perform worse on upgrading its own industrial structure than the resource-independent cities under the impact of the more strict environmental regulation policy;(3)The impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of industrial structure also has obvious location heterogeneity.Developed cities in the east can quickly respond to the requirements of pollution control policy by upgrading industrial structure,while the cities in the central and western of China are limited by their own development foundation;(4)Through further mechanism analysis shows that there are two main paths for environmental regulation leading to industrial structure upgrading:technological progress forced by policies and foreign direct investment,The paper’s empirical tests have provided new evidence for the“Porter hypothesis”,and verified an opposite viewpoint to the“pollution shelter hypothesis”.Finally,this paper provides suggestions for optimization and upgrading industrial structure from the perspective of environmental policy makers and responders.

关 键 词：环境规制 产业结构升级 PSM-DID方法 “2+26”城市 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]