我国区域城镇化的碳排放效率时空动态效应研究  

Study on the Spatiotemporal Dynamic Effect of Carbon Emission Efficiency of Regional Urbanization in China

作　　者：吴旭晓[1] Wu Xuxiao

机构地区：[1]河南省社会科学院统计与管理科学研究所,郑州451464

出　　处：《区域经济评论》2023年第1期139-148,共10页Regional Economic Review

基　　金：2022年度河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“河南省新型城镇化高质量发展的创新与开放‘双强引擎’构建及协同效应研究”(2022BJJ055)。

摘　　要：发挥城镇化在碳排放效率提升中的积极效应是我国在实现“双碳”目标条件下保持中高速经济增长的必然选择。以2011—2020年我国30个省份的面板数据为研究样本,利用NCSE—EBM模型测度碳排放效率,并运用动态GMM模型实证检验城镇化的碳排放时空效应,结果显示:我国碳排放效率整体上处于比较低的水平,碳排放效率均值呈现先下降后上升的斜“√”型演变态势;2012年起我国省域碳排放效率在空间上逐步收敛;虽然我国城镇化整体上对碳排放效率提升存在显著性促进效果,但城镇化的碳排放效应随着区域城镇化水平上升而下降;数字化、产业结构、技术创新分别是低度、中度和高度城镇化地区碳排放效率提升的重要短板,环境规制是所有地区的主要制约瓶颈。Giving play to the positive effect of urbanization in improving carbon emission efficiency is the inevitable choice for China to maintain medium and high-speed economic growth under the condition of realizing the“double carbon”goal.Taking the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 as research samples,NCSE—EBM model is used to measure carbon emission efficiency,and dynamic GMM model is used to empirically test the temporal and spatial effect of urbanization on carbon emissions.The results show that China’s carbon emission efficiency is at a relatively low level as a whole,and the average carbon emission efficiency shows an oblique“√”evolution trend of first decreasing and then rising.China’s provincial carbon emission efficiency has gradually converged in space since 2012.Although China’s urbanization has a significant promoting effect on the improvement of carbon emission efficiency as a whole,the carbon emission effect of urbanization decreases with the rise of regional urbanization level.Digitization,industrial structure and technological innovation are important weaknesses in improving carbon emission efficiency in low,medium and high urbanization areas respectively.Environmental regulation is the main bottleneck in all regions.

关 键 词：城镇化 碳排放效率 动态效应 NCSE—EBM模型 动态GMM模型 

分 类 号：F299[经济管理—国民经济]