粤港澳大湾区战略对珠海港发展的影响  

Impact of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Strategy to Development of Zhuhai Port

作　　者：盛进路[1] 梅亚 于敏[1] 梅芳 杨忠振 SHENG Jinlu;MEI Ya;YU Min;MEI Fang;YANG Zhongzhen(College of Traffic and Transportation,Chongqing Jiaotong University,Chongqing 400074,China;Maritime College of Ningbo University,Ningbo University,Ningbo 315211,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学交通运输学院,重庆400074 [2]宁波大学海运学院,浙江宁波315211

出　　处：《中国航海》2022年第4期100-106,共7页Navigation of China

摘　　要：为了定量分析粤港澳大湾区战略对珠海港发展的激励效应,以便对珠海港未来发展提供借鉴。在对大湾区和珠海港现状分析的基础上,以2015年~2020年9个上市港口企业的54组数据作为研究样本,以珠海港为实验组、大湾区外的唐山港等8个港口作为对照组,以粤港澳大湾区战略与其实施时间分别作为政策虚拟变量和时间虚拟变量,以港口吞吐量和港口所在城市GDP增速等8种影响港口发展要素作为控制变量,建立了双重差分模型,验证粤港澳大湾区战略实施对珠海港发展的影响效应,并对回归结果的稳健性进行了平行趋势与安慰剂检验。研究结果显示了粤港澳大湾区战略对珠海港发展的促进作用为0.247,在5%水平下显著,为珠海港进一步发展提供参考。The promoting effect of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area Strategy to the development of Zhuhai Port is analyzed quantitatively.The status que of the Great Bay Area and Zhuhai Port is analyzed.The research of the effect of the strategy is based on the 54 sets of data from 9 listed port enterprises in 2015~2020.The Zhuhai Port is viewed as the experimental group and the other 8 ports out of The Great Bay area,such as Tangshan Port,are taken as the control group.The Great Bay Area Strategy and its implementing time are taken as policy dummy variable and time dummy variable respectively.8 factors influencing port development,such as port throughput and the GDP growth in the city where the port is located belonging to,are taken as the control variables and a difference-in-difference model is built.The promoting effect of The Great Bay Area Strategy to development of Zhuhai Port is examined and proved.The robustness of the regression result is checked through parallel trend test plus placebo test.The research indicates that the promoting effect is positive 0.247 in 5%level of significance.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 珠海港 双重差分 稳健性检验 

分 类 号：U6-9[交通运输工程—船舶与海洋工程]