基于CGE模型的我国西北地区农业水价政策研究  

Study on agricultural water pricing policy in northwest China based on CGE model

作　　者：曲永驭 康健 林希晨 倪红珍[1] 蒋云钟[1] 陈根发[1] QU Yongyu;KANG Jian;LIN Xichen;NI Hongzhen;JIANG Yunzhong;CHEN Genfa(China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Development Research Center of the Ministry,Beijing 100038,China)

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,北京100038 [2]水利部发展研究中心,北京100038

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2022年第12期160-171,共12页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(59035679);2002年高等学校博士学科点专项科研项目(20020183061)。

摘　　要：中国西北地区干旱缺水且农业水价远低于供水成本,不利于当地农业节水与农业经济的可持续发展。为探讨中国西北地区农业水价改革的影响,基于可计算并加以改进的一般均衡(CGE)模型,根据区域内农业作物的经济属性和行业的用水特征,加入了农业细分模块和水源替代模块,并以典型干旱且农业用水量及用水比例较高的中国甘肃省武威市为例,设置了3种水价改革情景,定量研究了不同水价政策下区域经济效应、社会效益、不同水源用水量和水价弹性的变化。结果表明,通过提高水价能够有效促进农业节水,且对区域经济的影响较小。以情景S01(2021年收回供水成本并开始实现盈利)为例,相较于基准情景,2030年农业地表水用量预计降低1.51%,地下水用量预计降低2.89%,区域GDP预计降低0.075%,CPI预计提高0.10%。水价弹性的绝对值小于0.04。并给出情景S02即2025年收回农业供水成本并逐渐开始盈利为最佳的水价改革方案。本研究对中国西北地区制定合理的水价政策具有借鉴意义。Northwest China is drought and water shortage and its agricultural water price is far lower than the water supply cost, which is not conducive to the local agricultural water saving and the sustainable development of the agricultural economy. This paper is based on the computable general equilibrium model and improves to explore the impact of agricultural water price reform in Northwest China, according to the economic attributes of crops and the water use characteristics of industries in the region, the agricultural subdivision module and water source substitution module are added. Taking Wuwei City, Gansu Province, China, which is a typical arid city with high agricultural water consumption and water consumption ratio as a case study area, three scenarios of water price reform are developed respectively to quantitatively study the changes in regional economic effects, social benefits, water consumption of different water sources, and water price elasticities under various water price policies. The results demonstrate that increasing the water price can effectively promote agricultural water-saving and has little impact on the regional economy. Taking scenario 01(recovering the water supply cost and starting to realize profitability in 2021) as an example, the agricultural surface water consumption is expected to be reduced by 1.51%, and the groundwater consumption is expected to be reduced by 2.89% in 2030 compared with the baseline scenario. Regional GDP is expected to be decreased by 0.075%, and CPI is expected to be increased by 0.10%. The absolute value of water price elasticity is less than 0.04. This study gives scenario 02, that is, the best water price reform policy is to recover the cost of agricultural water supply and gradually start to make profits in 2025. This paper has reference significance for formulating a reasonable water price policy in Northwest China.

关 键 词：农业水价 CGE模型 水源替代 细分农业 水价弹性 经济影响 

分 类 号：F224.9[经济管理—国民经济]