基于暴雨过程强度的贵州省雨涝危险性评估  

Flood Risk Assessment in Guizhou Province Based on Intensity of Rainstorm Process

作　　者：龙俐[1,2] 张东海[1] 李霄[1] 李忠燕[1] 王烁 LONG Li;ZHANG Donghai;LI Xiao;LI Zhongyan;WANG Shuo(Guizhou Climate Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Key Laboratory of Mountain Climate and Resources of Guizhou Province,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气候中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省山地气候与资源重点实验室,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《中低纬山地气象》2022年第6期9-14,共6页Mid-low Latitude Mountain Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2021J018):西南地区延伸期智能网格逐候预测及检验技术。

摘　　要：利用贵州省84个国家级气象观测站1991—2020年逐日、逐时降水量资料,以暴雨过程中持续天数、累积降水量、最大日降水量、最大小时降水量4个评价指标为基础,得到年雨涝指数和最大降水量阈值。结合地形、水系及地质灾害等影响,对贵州省雨涝危险性进行评估和区划。结果表明:①贵州省大部分地区年雨涝指数为中等以上等级,其中安顺市大部、黔西南州东部达到极强;②雨涝危险性程度具有西南部和东北部高、西北部低的分布特点,高危险性等级虽然占比小,但分布较为集中连片,易产生区域性影响;③针对不同时间长度,不同重现期的可能最大降水量阈值进行分析,对预警服务及决策有一定的参考价值。Based on the daily and hourly precipitation data of 84 national meteorological observation stations in Guizhou Province from 1991 to 2020,the annual rainfall index and the maximum precipitation threshold were obtained based on the four evaluation indicators of the continuous days,cumulative precipitation,maximum daily precipitation and maximum hourly precipitation in the process of rainstorm.Combined with the impact of terrain,water system and geological disasters,the risk assessment and regionalization of rain and waterlogging in Guizhou province are carried out.The results show that:①The annual rainfall index of most areas in Guizhou province is above the medium level,and most of Anshun City and the eastern part of Qianxinan Prefecture are extremely strong;②The degree of flood risk is high in the southwest and northeast,and low in the northwest.Although the proportion of high risk grade is small,its distribution is more concentrated and connected,and it is easy to have regional influence.③The possible maximum precipitation thresholds of different time lengths and different return periods are analyzed,which has certain reference value for early warning service and decision-making.

关 键 词：暴雨过程强度 年雨涝指数 雨涝危险性指数 评估 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]