农村社会阶层分化制约因素分析及预测  

作　　者：赵奇[1] 范春丽[1] 黄利梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]郑州师范学院,郑州450052

出　　处：《智慧农业导刊》2023年第2期33-36,共4页JOURNAL OF SMART AGRICULTURE

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(19YJCZH263);2022年郑州师范学院定向研究招标课题(无编号)。

摘　　要：根据数据的可获得性,利用2009—2012年我国农村居民人均纯收入分组的户数占调查户比重的统计数据,运用因子分析方法对农村社会阶层的12个制约因素进行分析,结果显示,农村社会经济发展、财政支农政策、城镇化水平、农业现代化投入水平、产业结构、从农人员教育程度和农业劳动产出率等因素是制约我国农村社会阶层分化的主要因素。在分析基础上,使用灰色GM(1,1)预测模型预测2013—2016年农村社会阶层的人口比重,表明我国低社会阶层比重大的局面逐步调整,向良好态势发展。According to the availability of data, based on the statistical data of the proportion of the net income per capita of rural residents in the households surveyed from 2009 to 2012, the factor analysis method is used to analyze the 12restrictive factors of the rural social stratum. The results show that the social and economic development in rural areas, the policy of financial support for agriculture, the level of urbanization, the input level of agricultural modernization, the industrial structure, the education level of agricultural personnel, the output rate of agricultural labor and other factors are the main factors restricting the differentiation of rural social strata in China. On the basis of the analysis, the GM(1, 1) prediction model is used to predict the population proportion of the rural social stratum from 2013 to 2016, which shows that the situation of the large proportion of the low social stratum in China is gradually adjusted and develops to a good situation.

关 键 词：农村阶层分化 制约因素 因子分析 灰色关联分析 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：D663.2[政治法律—政治学]