中国农村民居屋顶分布式光伏发电的发展潜力分析  

ANALYSIS ON DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL OF ROOFTOP DISTRIBUTED PV POWER GENERATION OF RURAL RESIDENTIAL DWELLINGS IN CHINA

作　　者：Charlie Dou 左冲 贾彦[2,4] 姜露 郑丽娜 Charlie Dou;Zuo Chong;Jia Yan;Jiang Lu;Zheng Lina(World Resources Institute(WRI)China Office,Beijing 100027,China;The College of Energy and Power Engineering,Inner Mongolia University of Technology,Hohhot 010051,China;Yunnan Rilin New Energy Development Co.,Ltd.,Kunming 650041,China;Key Laboratory of Wind Energy and Solar Energy Technology,Ministry of Education,Hohhot 010051,China;Inner Mongolia Lenon New Energy Co.,Ltd.,Hohhot 010010,China)

机构地区：[1]世界资源研究所(美国)北京代表处,北京100027 [2]内蒙古工业大学能源与动力工程学院,呼和浩特010051 [3]云南日林新能源开发有限公司,昆明650041 [4]风能太阳能利用技术省部共建教育部实验室,呼和浩特010051 [5]内蒙古绿能新能源有限责任公司,呼和浩特010010

出　　处：《太阳能》2023年第1期5-16,共12页Solar Energy

基　　金：内蒙古自治区科技计划项目(RZ2100001671);昆明市科技“揭榜挂帅制”项目(昆科计字2021-J-H-001号)。

摘　　要：农村社区有充足的空间和较大的能源消费,应在实现碳达峰、碳中和的能源转型中发挥重要作用,然而许多关于能源转型的预测分析都未给予农村社区足够的关注。分析了中国大陆农村人口、家庭户数及能源消费的基本情况,从各具特色的农村民居出发,归纳了中国农村民居屋顶的主要类型,推算出农村民居屋顶面积的基本量;然后以此为基础,探讨了影响农村民居屋顶分布式光伏发电系统应用的主要因素,包括:屋顶基本形式、屋顶大小、屋顶强度、阴影、坡屋顶平面的倾斜度、屋顶平面的方位角、屋顶面积的可利用性等;并分别针对基本情景和积极情景,对中国农村民居屋顶分布式光伏发电系统的装机容量潜力和发电量,以及由此带来的环境效益和经济效益进行了预测,以说明发展农村民居屋顶分布式光伏发电可以在促进中国能源转型和助推乡村振兴方面发挥作用。结果表明:基本情景下,中国农村民居屋顶分布式光伏发电的装机容量潜力为348 GW;积极情景下,装机容量潜力为696 GW。Rural communities have sufficient space and large energy consumption,and should play an important role in the emission peak and carbon neutrality.However,many predictive analyses of energy transitions have not paid enough attention to rural communities.This paper analyzes the basic situation of rural population,the number of households and energy consumption in the Chinese mainland.Starting from the distinctive rural residential dwellings,the main types of rural residential dwelling rooftops in China are summarized,and the basic amount of the rooftop area of rural residential dwellings is calculated.Then,based on this,the main factors that affect the application of distributed PV power generation system on the rooftop of rural residential dwellings are discussed,including the basic form of rooftop,rooftop size,rooftop strength,shadow,slope rooftop plane gradient,rooftop plane azimuth,availability of rooftop area,etc.According to the basic scenario and the positive scenario respectively,the installed capacity potential and power generation capacity of the rooftop distributed PV power generation system for rural residential dwellings in China,as well as the environmental benefits and economic benefits brought by it,are predicted to show that the development of rooftop distributed PV power generation for rural residential dwellings can play a role in promoting China’s energy transformation and boosting rural revitalization.The results show that under the basic scenario,the installed capacity potential of rooftop distributed PV power generation of rural residential dwellings in China is 348 GW,and uder the positive scenario,the installed capacity potential is 696 GW.

关 键 词：农村民居 屋顶分布式光伏发电 装机容量潜力 乡村振兴 

分 类 号：TK514[动力工程及工程热物理—热能工程]