基于系统动力学的河南省农业碳排放研究  

Study on agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province based on system dynamics

作　　者：曹斌 李炳军[1] CAO Bin;LI Bing-jun(College of Information and Management Science,Henan Agricultural University,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]河南农业大学信息与管理科学学院,郑州450046

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2022年第24期64-69,共6页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：河南省软科学研究重点项目(202400410051)。

摘　　要：从系统的角度分析经济、化肥结构、能源对农业碳排放的作用机制,构建河南省农业碳排放的系统动力学模型,模拟不同政策情形下的农业碳排放。结果表明,河南省农业碳排放在2022—2030年呈缓慢下降趋势;改变化肥结构、提高能源利用率对农业碳排放具有抑制作用。最后,从调整农业公共投资力度、化肥中氮元素比例、调整能源强度方面为河南省发展低碳农业提供理论建议。From a systematic perspective,the mechanism of economy,fertilizer and energy on agricultural carbon emissions were analyzed,a system dynamics model of agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province was constructed,and agricultural carbon emissions under different policy situations were simulated.The results indicated that the agricultural carbon emissions in Henan Province showed a downward trend from 2020 to 2030,which was relatively slow.Changing chemical fertilizer structure and improving energy efficiency could inhibit agricultural carbon emissions.Finally,the theoretical suggestions for developing low-carbon agriculture in Henan Province were provided from the aspects of adjusting the level of public investment,reducing the proportion of nitrogen in fertilizer,and adjusting energy intensity.

关 键 词：农业碳排放 系统动力学 低碳农业 河南省 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]