The second demographic transition:also a 21st century Asian challenge?  

作　　者：Ron J.Lesthaeghe 

机构地区：[1]Royal Flemish Academy of Arts and Sciences,Brussels,Belgium

出　　处：《China Population and Development Studies》2022年第3期228-236,共9页当代中国人口与发展（英文）

摘　　要：This introduction aims at placing the unfolding sub-patterns of the Asian“Second Demographic Transition”(SDT)in a global context by contrasting them with those of societies with other than patriarchal histories.Firstly,fertility transitions to below-replacement level can be achieved as part of the first“altruistic”transition without any SDT traits being present.Secondly,Asian societies are by no means immune to genuine SDT developments,as illustrated by the emergence and spread of pre-marital cohabitation.Thirdly,the SDT cohabitation pattern is still conservative:it is followed by marriage,pregnancies result in shotgun marriages or abortions,and parenthood within consensual unions remains rare.Also divorce rates are low.But it is also argued that all Asian cases are still at the beginning of the possible SDT evolution or have barely started it,and that old ways can die off rather quickly with the succession of generations.Finally,it is shown that the cultural component,i.e.the“Willingness”condition,can act as a bottleneck slowing down the transition to a new pattern of behaviour.We therefore illustrate on a global scale how the spread of cohabitation is part of a broader ethical revolution stressing individual rather than societal discretion in matters of life and death.On the basis of these profiles we expect stronger resistance to SDT patterns of partnerhip formation in Hindu and Muslim societies.

关 键 词：Second demographic transition World family systems Unmarried cohabitation Asian prospects Ethics revolution Individual autonomy Sub-replacement fertility 

分 类 号：C92[社会学—人口学]