基于GIS和分位数回归对赣州生态系统服务价值变化分析  

Changes and impacts on ecosystem service value based on GIS and quantile regression model

作　　者：丁星明 邹洁 朱诗渊 DING Xingming;ZOU Jie;ZHU Shiyuan(Jianxi University of Sciences and Technology,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China;Ganzhou Real Estate Registration Center,Ganzhou Jiangxi 341000,China)

机构地区：[1]江西理工大学,江西赣州341000 [2]赣州市不动产登记中心,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《长江信息通信》2022年第12期51-54,共4页Changjiang Information & Communications

摘　　要：生态系统服务价值(ESC)可以有效指导生态恢复和国土空间规划,实现人地关系可持续发展,文章基于GIS得2000-2020年的ESC时空变化,并选取社会经济和自然因素,利用面板分位数回归模型得到影响因素在不同分位数下对ESC的影响程度。2000-2020年,赣州ESC下降了61.07亿元,调节服务价值占整个ESC比例最大;在ESC不同的区域,影响因素有不同的效果,第三产业、降水、气温作用效果不显著,人均GDP、经济密度、中学教师数作用效果显著。Ecosystem service value(ESC)can effectively guide ecological restoration and territorial spatial planning,and realize the sustainable development of human-land relationship.Based on GIS,this paper obtains the temporal and spatial changes of ESC from 2000 to 2020,and selects socio-economic and natural factors to use panel quantification.The numerical regression model was used to obtain the influence degree of influencing factors on ESC in different quantiles.From 2000 to2020,the ESC in Ganzhou dropped by 6.107 billion yuan,and the value of adjustment services accounted for the largest proportion of the entire ESC;in different ESC regions,the influencing factors had different effects,the tertiary industry,precipitation,and temperature had no significant effect.Economic density and the number of middle school teachers have a significant effect.

关 键 词：可持续发展 生态系统服务价值 面板分位数回归模型 

分 类 号：X82[环境科学与工程—环境工程]