论人口规模巨大的中国式现代化:机遇、优势、风险与挑战  

The Chinese Modernization of a Huge Population:Opportunities,Advantages,Risks and Challenges

作　　者：穆光宗[1] 侯梦舜 郭超[1] 张雅璐 MU Guangzong;HOU Mengshun;GUO Chao;ZHANG Yalu

机构地区：[1]北京大学人口研究所

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第1期5-22,共18页Journal of China Agricultural University;Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“‘一老一小’融合照护体系实施路径与效果评估研究”(22CRK005)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告提出以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴。现代化的本质是人的现代化,中国式现代化的实现既是为了人,也需要依靠人。中国式现代化是人口规模巨大的现代化,意味着这是一场激发人口巨大潜能和力量,全人口共同参与、共同发展与共同富裕的人类历史上最大规模、最全面和最深刻的社会转型与变革。人口规模巨大一方面蕴含着人口力量大、人力资本提升、人口城镇化水平提高等优势和机遇,另一方面也存在人口压力大、生育率极低、人口结构失衡、城镇化质量不高、婚姻家庭出现新问题等风险和挑战。优化人口发展,需要坚持以人为本,促进人的全面自由发展,把握人口发展的客观规律,积极应对少子化老龄化,打造全人口、全过程、全方位和谐社会,从而为中国式现代化创造有利的人口条件。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China proposed“to advance the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation on all fronts through a Chinese path to modernization”.The essence of modernization is the modernization of people.The realization of Chinese modernization is not only for people,but also needs to rely on people.Chinese modernization is the modernization of a huge population.It is the largest,most comprehensive and profound social transformation and reform in human history,in which the huge potential and strength of the population are inspired and all the people can participate in construction,develop and prosper together.On the one hand,the huge size of the population implies advantages and opportunities such as superpower,improved human capital and a higher level of urbanization.On the other hand,there are risks and challenges such as population pressure,lowest-low fertility,unbalanced population structure,low quality of urbanization and new problems in marriage and family.To optimize population development,we need to adhere to the principle of being people-oriented,promote the comprehensive and free development of people,grasp the laws of population development,actively cope with the problems of aging and fewer children,and build a harmonious society with the whole population,the whole process and all rounds,so as to create favorable population conditions for Chinese modernization.

关 键 词：人口规模巨大 中国式现代化 人口优势 人口机遇 人口风险 人口挑战 

分 类 号：D61[政治法律—政治学] C924.2[政治法律—中外政治制度]