新、旧气候态差异及对中国地区气候和极端事件评估业务的影响  

The difference between new and old climate states and its impact on the assessment of climate and extreme event in China

作　　者：梅梅[1] 侯威[1] 周星妍 MEI Mei;HOU Wei;ZHOU Xing-Yan(National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]中国气象局国家气候中心,北京100081

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2022年第6期653-669,共17页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(42005058,41775078)。

摘　　要：利用1961—2020年中国区域2089个地面观测站资料,分析了1991—2020年和1981—2010年新、旧气候态下,平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量等变量的空间变化特征,探讨对气候距平值、极端事件等评估结果的影响。结果表明:新气候态下,全国三类气温年和季节平均均一致升高,年降水增加,空间上气温偏高(低)、降水偏多(少)的特征将弱(强)化;华北东部、华东中部和北部以及青海西南部的年平均风速和日照时数距平增加;极端高温年减少,低温年增多,其中平均气温和最低气温受到的影响较最高气温更大;夏季南北方两条雨带极端强降水年的发生概率降低,冬季东北中部和南部、华北、华东北部、西北东部极端弱降水年概率显著增加;全国超过一半的站点极端日高温、低温和强降水事件的历史频次发生改变;新气候态还减弱了极端日高温事件的增速,加快了极端日低温事件的降速。Based on the daily and monthly data of variables such as average temperature,maximum temperature,minimum temperature and precipitation at 2089 stations in China from 1961 to 2020,and the corresponding climate standard normals in 1981-2010 and 1991-2020,the difference of distribution between the two 30-year climate states were analyzed,followed by the investigation on the impact to the climate anomaly,the probability of extreme years(seasons),and extreme events.Under the new climate state,the three kinds of annual and seasonal temperature elements in China increase congruously,as well as the annual precipitation.Then the regional distribution difference of their corresponding climate anomaly will shrink.The anomaly of average wind speed and sunshine hours increase in the east of North China,the middle and north of East China and the southeast of Qinghai province.The probability of extreme high temperature year decreases and that of extreme low changes oppositely.Compared to the maximum temperature,the average and minimum temperature are more affected.Both of the probabilities of extreme heavy precipitation on the north and south rain belts in summer,and the probability of extreme weak precipitation in the middle and south of Northeast,North,the north of East and the east of Northwest China in winter significantly raise.The historical frequency of daily extreme high temperature,low temperature and heavy precipitation events at more than half of the stations in China has changed.The new climate state also weakens the growth rate of daily extreme high temperature events and accelerates the deceleration of daily extreme low temperature events.In the business,it is necessary to reanalyze extreme years(seasons)and extreme events.

关 键 词：气候态 气候变化 极端事件 灾害 气候评估 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]