基于改进的VGG16模型的副热带高压相似识别及应用评估  

Research on the Similarity Recognition and Application Evaluation of Subtropical High Based on Modified VGG16 Model

作　　者：周必高 鲁小琴[3] 郑峰 黄克慧 洪水洁 谢海华 赵兵科[3] ZHOU Bigao;LU Xiaoqin;ZHENG Feng;HUANG Kehui;HONG Shuijie;XIE Haihua;ZHAO Bingke(Wenzhou Meteorological Office of Zhejiang Province,Wenzhou 325000;Wenzhou Key Laboratory of Typhoon Monitoring and Forecasting Technology of Zhejiang Province,Wenzhou 325000;Shanghai Typhoon Institute,CMA,Shanghai 200030;ISTRONG Technology Co.,Ltd.,Fuzhou 350000)

机构地区：[1]浙江省温州市气象局,温州325000 [2]浙江省温州市台风监测预报技术重点实验室,温州325000 [3]中国气象局上海台风研究所,上海200030 [4]四创科技有限公司,福州350000

出　　处：《气象》2022年第12期1608-1616,共9页Meteorological Monthly

基　　金：中国气象局上海台风研究基金项目(TFJJ202013);上海市自然科学基金项目(21ZR1477300)共同资助。

摘　　要：台风预报除常规方法外,查找历史相似作为预报和决策的参考依据是常用手段,但从海量历史台风中检索相似费时费力。提出了一种基于改进的视觉几何组模型VGG16的副热带高压(以下简称副高)相似检索方法,进行基于副高相似的历史相似台风查询。通过对1979—2020年台风季19736个对应时次的副高图像提取、数据增强、模型学习和优化,并以学习感知图像块相似度(learned perceptual image patch similarity,LPIPS)作为副高相似的度量指标,最终建立了改进的VGG16模型。试验结果表明,使用该模型可以找出较为相似的历史台风,模型检索得到的排名第一的历史相似台风与目标台风相似度高达92.55%,该方法可为台风预报业务人员提供了积极参考。同时,该模型相较于传统的人工识别,识别时间较短、检索效率高,可在业务及科研中推广应用。Historical similar typhoons are important references for typhoon prediction and decision-making besides conventional methods.However,it is time-consuming and laborious to retrieve similar information from a large number of historical typhoons.In this paper,a similarity retrieval method of subtropical high based on improved visual geometry group model(VGG16)is proposed to query historical similar typhoons based on subtropical high similarity.Through the image extraction,data enhancement,model learning and optimization of 19736 subtropical high corresponding times in the typhoon season from 1979 to 2020,taking the learned perceptual image patch similarity(LPIPS)as the measurement index of subtropical high similarity,we establish an improved VGG16 model finally.The test results show that greatly similar historical typhoons can be found by using this model.The similarity between the historical similar typhoon ranked first retrieved by this model and the target typhoon is 92.55%,which provides a very meaningful reference for typhoon forecasters.At the same time,compared with the traditional manual recognition,this model takes shorter recognition time and has higher retrieval efficiency,and can be applied in typhoon forecasting and research.

关 键 词：台风 副热带高压 VGG16模型 LPIPS (learned perceptual IMAGE PATCH similarity) 几何图像算法 

分 类 号：P456[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]