中国收入差距核心影响因素提取与非线性动态影响效应研究  

Investigating the Core Factors and Nonlinear Dynamic Effect of Income Disparity in China

作　　者：柴建[1] 王瑶瑶 李晓芬 张晓空 CHAI Jian;WANG Yaoyao;LI Xiaofen;ZHANG Xiaokong(School of Economics and Management,Xidian University,Xi’an 710126,China;School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410079,China)

机构地区：[1]西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院,陕西西安710126 [2]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2023年第1期74-88,共15页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：陕西省“高层次人才特殊支持计划”青年拔尖人才项目(TZ0153);西安电子科技大学经济与管理学院研究生创新实践种子基金项目“中国收入差距核心影响因素提取与动态非线性影响效应研究”。

摘　　要：聚焦收入差距扩大问题,运用贝叶斯结构方程模型和通径分析法刻画中国收入差距的影响机理并提取出核心影响因素,构建时变参数向量自回归模型考察收入差距与其核心影响因素间的非线性动态关系。研究结果表明:(1)经济增长、人口因素、社会保障与基础设施均不同程度扩大了中国收入差距。(2)收入差距对储蓄率、失业保险覆盖率以及人均受教育水平的变动非常灵敏。短期内失业保险覆盖率增加对收入差距产生较大的正向冲击,长期中失业保险的收入分配调节效应显现。(3)时点脉冲响应结果表明,利率越低,储蓄率恶化收入差距的效果越显著;社保制度的改革完善短期会使失业保险覆盖率恶化收入差距的作用增强,长期来看随着覆盖群体的扩大,失业保险的收入再分配效果逐渐增强;技术知识领域投资增加,在长期将使人均受教育水平进一步恶化收入差距。据此,缩小收入差距的主要着眼点应是努力提高中低收入居民的收入水平,扩大社会保障覆盖面并逐步提升保障水平,不断完善收入再分配制度。In recent years,as China’s economy and resident income continue to increase,the problem of income disparity is deteriorating,which has attracted much attention.Coping effectively with the income disparity is an essential requirement for realizing common prosperity,as well as the inevitable choice to release the potential of domestic consumption and smooth the dual circulation(in which domestic and overseas markets complement and reinforce each other,with the domestic market as the mainstay).However,existing literature only analyzes the influence mechanism of income disparity from a single dimension and static perspective,and cannot make a comprehensive judgment of the effect of income disparity change,which makes it difficult for income distribution to achieve ideal results in practice.In response to the above problems,firstly,we study the influencing mechanisms of income disparity from the perspective of economic growth,social security and infrastructure,and population with the application of Bayesian structural equation model(BSEM).Then we determine the core influencing factors through path analysis.Finally,we characterize the dynamic nonlinear relationships between income disparity and its core influencing factors through VAR and TVP-SV-VAR models.The results of this paper are as follows.(1)Economic growth,sound social security and infrastructures,and population contribute to the widening income disparity to varying degrees.(2)Income disparity is sensitive to changes in the saving rate,unemployment insurance coverage,and educational level per capita.The increase in unemployment insurance coverage has a large positive impact on income disparity in the short term,whereas,the adjustment effect of the distribution of unemployment insurance income happens in long term.(3)Time-point impulse response suggests that the lower interest rate indicates the more significant impact of the savings rate in aggravating the income disparity.With the reform and improvement of social security system,unemployment insurance cover

关 键 词：收入差距 共同富裕 经济增长 社会保障 保险覆盖率 储蓄率 受教育水平 收入再分配 

分 类 号：F124.7[经济管理—世界经济]