基于Leaky Noisy-or Gate和贝叶斯网络的光伏发电项目施工风险评估方法  

Construction Risk Assessment of PV Project Based on Leaky Noisy-or Gate and Bayesian Network

作　　者：董华珊 侯学良[1] DONG Huashan;HOU Xueliang(Institute of Engineering Technology and Management,North China Electric Power University,Beijing 102206,China)

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学工程技术与管理研究所,北京102206

出　　处：《科技和产业》2023年第2期218-223,共6页Science Technology and Industry

摘　　要：针对复杂多变的光伏发电项目施工风险评估问题,利用Leaky Noisy-or Gate模型整合历史经验和专家知识来确定贝叶斯网络参数并建立光伏施工风险的贝叶斯网络模型,同时采用Netica仿真分析,对施工风险进行有效预测并诊断识别出关键性风险和敏感性风险,以便管理者精准施策、管控风险。为验证该方法的有效性,以Z项目为例进行建模仿真。结果表明,其施工风险等级为中等,与实际相符。Aiming at the complex and changeable construction risk assessment of photovoltaic power generation projects,the Leaky Noisy or Gate model is used to integrate historical experience and expert knowledge to determine the Bayesian network parameters.The Bayesian network model of photovoltaic construction risk is established.At the same time,the Netica simulation analysis is used to effectively predict and diagnose the construction risks and identify the key risks and sensitive risks,so that the managers can make accurate decisions and control the risks.In order to verify the effectiveness of this method,the Z project is taken as an example for modeling and simulation;The results show that the construction risk level is medium,which is consistent with the actual situation.

关 键 词：光伏项目 贝叶斯网络 Leaky Noisy-or Gate模型 敏感性分析 关键性风险 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学]