2007—2020年平顶山市布鲁菌病流行特征分析及发病趋势预测  

Analysis of epidemic characteristics and prediction of incidence trendof brucellosis in Pingdingshan City from 2007-2020

作　　者：李艳艳[1] 李宗瑾[2] 王轶[2] 刘娜 张俊杰[1] 马西平[1] LI Yan-yan;LI Zong-jin;WANG Yi;LIU Na;ZHANG Jun-jie;MA Xi-ping(Department for Communicable DiseaseControl and Prevention,Pingdingshan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Pingdingshan Henan,467099,China;Department for Laboratory,Pingdingshan Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Pingdingshan Henan,467099,China)

机构地区：[1]平顶山市疾病预防控制中心传染病预防控制科,河南平顶山467099 [2]平顶山市疾病预防控制中心检验科,河南平顶山467099

出　　处：《职业与健康》2022年第22期3072-3075,共4页Occupation and Health

摘　　要：目的分析2007—2020年平顶山市布鲁菌病流行特征,预测2021—2022年的发病趋势,为制定防控策略提供依据。方法收集2007—2020年平顶山市疾病监测报告信息系统报告的布鲁菌病病例信息,运用描述流行病学方法分析其流行强度和分布特征,利用自回归移动平均法(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)建立预测模型,预测2021—2022年的布病发病趋势。结果2007—2020年平顶山市共报告布鲁菌病病例6585例,年均发病率为11.19/10万,自2011年起发病水平快速增加,2015年达到高峰。郊县发病水平高于市区,发病高峰期为4—7月,男性病例多于女性,发病年龄集中在40~<69岁,病例职业以农、牧民为主。报告病例中,实验室确诊病例占99.76%,异地报告比例为14.44%,发病到诊断时间间隔中位数为23天。布鲁菌病发病预测模型为ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)I2(统计量为21.117,P>0.05),预测2021—2022年的布鲁菌病月发病率高于前4年同期水平,发病高峰月均为4—7月,2022年整体发病水平高于2021年。结论平顶山市布鲁菌病防控形势依然严峻,要继续强化联防联控机制,持续开展畜间布鲁菌病疫苗接种。加强农村中老年养殖群体的职业防护和健康教育,普及一般人群的健康宣教,采取综合性防控措施控制布鲁菌病的发生和流行。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics ofbrucellosis in Pingdingshan City from 2007 to 2020,forecast the incidence of brucellosis from 2021 to 2022,and provide basis for formulating prevention and control strategies.Methods The information of brucellosis cases reported by the disease surveillance and reporting information system in Pingdingshan City from 2007 to 2020 were collected,and the descriptive epidemiology was used to analyze the epidemic intensity and distribution characteristics.The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)method was used to establish the prediction model to forecast the incidence of human brucellosis from 2021 to 2022.Results Totally 6585 brucellosis cases were reported in Pingdingshan from 2007 to 2020,and the annual average incidence was 11.19/100000.The incidence level has increased rapidly since 2011 and reached a peak in 2015.The incidence in suburb was higher the that in urban area.The peak season appeared April to July.There are more male cases than female cases.The age of onset was 40-<69 years old.The most of cases were farmers and herdsmen.The laboratory confirmed cases accounted for 99.76%of total reported cases.The proportion of non-local report cases was 14.44%.The median time between onset and diagnosis was 23 days.The prediction model of brucellosis onset was ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12(the statistic is 21.117,P>0.05).It was predicted that the monthly incidence of brucellosis in 2021-2022 is higher than that in the same period of the previous four years,the peak season is from April to July,and the overall incidence in 2022 is higher than that in 2021.Conclusions The situation of brucellosis prevention and control in Pingdingshan City is still grim.It is necessary to continue to strengthen the mechanism of joint prevention and control,and carry out vaccination against brucellosis among livestock.It is essential to strengthen occupational protection and health education for middle-aged and elderly farmers in rural areas,popularize health education for th

关 键 词：布鲁氏菌病 流行特征 趋势预测 

分 类 号：R181.81[医药卫生—流行病学]