城镇化能否突破“胡焕庸线”?——基于2005—2020年中国省区市面板数据的实证检验  

Can urbanization break through the“HuHuanyong line”?——Empirical test based on panel data of provinces in China from 2005 to 2020

作　　者：赵果庆[1] 张欣玲 ZHAO Guoqing;ZHANG Xinling(School of statistics and mathematics,Yunnan University of Finance and Economics,Kunming 650221,China)

机构地区：[1]云南财经大学统计与数学学院,云南昆明650221

出　　处：《中国软科学》2022年第12期89-101,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“突破‘胡焕庸线’的城镇化:效应、模式与促进政策”(72063034)。

摘　　要：城镇化能否突破“胡焕庸线”?这一问题引发学术争论,观点不一,且尚未得到实证检验。城镇化能否促进“胡焕庸线”两侧区域协调发展是问题的本质。以2005—2021年“胡焕庸线”两种划区的省级面板数据进行实证。研究表明,城镇化稳健地推动人均GDP增长及“胡焕庸线”北部片区的较高增长,实现“胡焕庸线”两侧区域的人均GDP收敛,促进两侧区域协调发展。进一步计量结果显示,城镇化提高了人均GDP收敛速度的5.04%~47.33%,占人均GDP总收敛速度的44.32%~67.09%,城镇化对人均GDP增长的边际贡献在0.0278至1.2911之间。这意味着,我国要有力推进“三纵两横”的城镇化空间布局,尤其要加快推进“胡焕庸线”北部片区的城镇化,将更有效地促进“胡焕庸线”北部片区发展;还要增强财政收入、万人发明专利数和万人教师数,提升自我发展能力;采取切实可行措施,鼓励人口向“胡焕庸线”北部片区城市集聚转移。can urbanization break through the“Hu Huanyong line”?This problem has aroused academic debate,different views,and has yet to be empirically tested.Whether urbanization can promote the coordinated development of both sides of the“Hu Huanyong line”is the essence of the problem.This paper makes an empirical study on the two kinds of provincial panel data of both sides of“Hu Huanyong line”from 2005 to 2021.The research shows that urbanization steadily promotes the growth of per capita GDP and the high growth of the northern region of the“Hu Huanyong line”,realizes the convergence of per capita GDP on both sides of the“Hu Huanyong line”and promotes the coordinated development of both regions.Further measurement results show that urbanization has increased the convergence rate of per capita GDP by 5.04%~47.33%,accounting for 44.32%~67.09%of the total convergence rate of per capita GDP.The marginal contribution of urbanization to per capita GDP growth is between 0.0278~1.2911.This means that China should vigorously promote the spatial layout of urbanization of“three vertical and two horizontal”,especially accelerate the urbanization of the northern region of the“Hu Huanyong line”,which will more effectively promote the development of the northern region of the“Hu Huanyong line”;At the same time,we should also increase fiscal revenue,the number of invention patents and the number of 10000 teachers to improve our ability of self-development;Take practical measures to encourage the transfer of population to urban agglomeration in the northern region of the“Hu Huanyong line”.

关 键 词：城镇化 胡焕庸线 区域协调发展 实证检验 

分 类 号：D922.68[政治法律—环境与资源保护法学]