货币国际化会增加一国外部净资产吗?——基于估值效应和经常项目的比较研究  

Does Currency Internationalization Increase a Country′s Net Foreign Assets: A Comparative Study Based on Valuation Effects and Current Account

作　　者：刘威[1] 赵智慧 LIU Wei;ZHAO Zhihui(School of Economics and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中南财经政法大学学报》2023年第1期109-122,共14页Journal of Zhongnan University of Economics and Law

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金规划项目“人民币国际化进程中估值效应优化的影响渠道与效应评估研究”(18YJA790055)。

摘　　要：文章利用160个国家和地区的EWN II数据库样本,检验了货币国际化对一国外部净资产变动的影响,研究发现:货币国际化对一国外部净资产变动有显著正影响,具体而言,货币国际化对估值效应的正向影响大于对经常项目的负向影响,从而整体上对一国外部净资产产生了正向影响。机制检验发现,本币国际化主要通过汇率机制影响一国外部净资产,而非资产价格。进一步的异质性结果显示,在记账国际化程度更高、经济体量更大及发展中国家或地区,本币国际化更易增加该国外部净资产。作为发展中国家,我国应适当推进人民币国际化进程,进而通过正估值效应增加自身“隐性”外部净资产。Based on the EWN II database sample of 160 countries and regions from 2001-2016, this article examines the impact of currency internationalization on the change in net foreign assets. It is found that firstly, currency internationalization has a significant positive effect on the net foreign assets changes. Specifically, the positive impact of currency internationalization on valuation effect is greater than the negative impact on current account, leading to the positive impact on a country’s net foreign assets changes. Secondly, the mechanism test finds that local currency internationalization affects net foreign assets changes mainly through the exchange rate, rather than asset prices. Finally, the heterogeneity analysis shows that in countries with a higher degree of currency internationalization in the function of unit of account, countries with a larger economy and developing countries, domestic currency internationalization is more likely to increase net foreign assets. From the perspective of valuation effect, this paper provides policy suggestions for Chinese RMB internationalization decision-making and external asset management: As a developing country, China should properly promote the process of RMB internationalization, and increase the "invisible" net foreign assets through positive valuation effect.

关 键 词：货币国际化 外部净资产 估值效应 经常项目 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]