基于DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC模型的港口发展影响因素研究——以宁波舟山港为例  

Study on Influencing Factors of Port Development Based on DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC Model——Taking Ningbo Zhoushan Port as an Example

作　　者：温淯淋 闫国庆[1] 倪一铭 WEN Yulin;YAN Guoqing;NI Yiming(Zhejiang Wanli University,Ningbo 315100,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江万里学院,浙江宁波315100

出　　处：《物流科技》2023年第3期102-106,111,共6页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究一般项目(20YJA790079);国家社科基金一般项目(21BJY221)。

摘　　要：文章以宁波舟山港为例,结合专家访谈结果,梳理出港口发展的影响因素。通过DEMATEL方法分析各影响因素相互间的作用程度,并以此为依据确定各影响因素间的因果关系和每个因素在系统中的重要程度;采用ISM方法,对各影响因素进行层级划分,厘清各要素间的逻辑结构关系,再运用MICMAC方法将所有影响因素进行归类。通过研究发现:资源整合能力、安全运输保障、港腹互动、专业人才、港内外资聚集度,处于解释结构模型的较高层级,驱动着其他层级影响因素的作用发挥;港口风险应对能力对其他因素的依赖度低,但驱动力大,在系统中会对其他影响因素产生较大影响;港口进入门槛、自由贸易体系、战略规划、管理体制、港口间协作程度的驱动力与依赖度数值都低,在系统中不易受其他因素影响,对其他因素造成的影响较小。文章对港口发展提出了六大对策建议。Taking Ningbo Zhoushan port as an example, combined with the results of expert interviews, this paper combs out the influencing factors of port development. The interaction degree of each influencing factor is analyzed by DEMATEL method, and the causal relationship between each influencing factor and the importance of each factor in the system are determined on this basis;the ISM method is used to classify the influencing factors, clarify the logical structure relationship between the elements,and then the MICMAC method is used to classify all the influencing factors. Through the research, this paper finds that: The ability of resource integration, safe transportation guarantee, port belly interaction, professionals and the aggregation degree of domestic and foreign capital are at a higher level of the explanatory structure model, driving the role of influencing factors at other levels;the dependence of port risk response capability on other factors is low, but the driving force is large, which will have a great impact on other influencing factors in the system;the driving force and dependence of port entry threshold, free trade system, strategic planning, management system and degree of cooperation between ports are low. It is not easy to be affected by other factors in the system, and has little impact on other factors. This paper puts forward six countermeasures and suggestions for port development.

关 键 词：DEMATEL-ISM-MICMAC模型 港口发展 影响因素 

分 类 号：U691[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]