基于灰色GM(1,1)模型的湖南省生鲜农产品冷链物流需求预测分析  

Forecast and Analysis of Cold Chain Logistics Demand of Fresh Agricultural Products in Hunan Province Based on Grey GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：曾豪 朱文娟[1] ZENG Hao;ZHU WenJuan(Commercial College,Hunan University of Technology,Zhuzhou 412000,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南工业大学商学院,湖南株洲412000

出　　处：《信阳农林学院学报》2022年第4期40-46,共7页Journal of Xinyang Agriculture and Forestry University

摘　　要：本文选取湖南省六种农产品种类为研究对象,以2010-2021年相关农产品产量为原始数据,采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对2022-2026年湖南省农产品产量进行预测,构建GM(1,1)模型并进行可行性、残差和精度检验分析。结果表明,湖南省农产品中蔬菜类冷链物流需求量呈上升趋势,其它冷链物流需求量整体呈平稳发展趋势。最后,本文针对湖南省农产品冷链物流发展给予政府和企业方面的对策建议。In this paper,six kinds of agricultural products in Hunan Province were selected as the research object,and the output of relevant agricultural products from 2010 to 2021 was taken as the original data.The Grey GM(1,1)model was used to predict the output of agricultural products in Hunan Province in the next five years from 2022 to 2026.The GM(1,1)model was constructed and its feasibility,residual and accuracy were tested and analyzed.The results show that the overall demand for cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Hunan Province shows a steady development trend.At last,this paper put out countermeasures and suggestions from the perspectives of government and enterprises for the development of cold chain logistics of agricultural products in Hunan Province.

关 键 词：湖南省 生鲜农产品 冷链物流 灰色GM(1 1)模型 

分 类 号：F326[经济管理—产业经济]