国际比较项目购买力平价测算结果影响因素研究  

Influencing Factors of the Purchasing Power Parity in the International Comparison Program

作　　者：王岩[1] 刘韶敏 Wang Yan;Liu Shaomin

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学人文和社会科学高等研究院 [2]东北财经大学统计学院

出　　处：《统计研究》2022年第12期85-103,共19页Statistical Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目“2017年轮全球ICP方法和数据问题研究”(20ATJ001);国家社会科学基金一般项目“国际比较项目非基准年购买力平价推算方法研究”(18BTJ002)。

摘　　要：本文基于国际比较项目(ICP)所采用的区域化比较方法,利用2011年154个经济体155个基本分类的价格和支出数据,模拟分析数据质量、汇总方法以及经济体区域归属三个层面的变动对ICP购买力平价测算结果的影响。模拟结果发现,数据质量层面,某支出类别占该经济体总支出份额越大,则该支出类别价格数据质量的高低对测算结果影响越大,其中食品和非酒精饮料、建筑品和住房服务的数据质量平均来看对测算结果的影响最大。进一步研究发现在价格偏离幅度相同的情况下,价格下偏对测算结果的影响大于价格上偏的影响。汇总方法层面,全球汇总方法和区域内汇总方法的变动对测算结果的影响具有显著差异,测算结果对区域内汇总方法的变动更加敏感。经济体区域归属层面,测算结果与区域划分密切相关,西亚和独联体区域内经济体的测算结果受区域划分影响最大,而欧盟-经济合作与发展组织区域经济体受区域划分影响最小。本文模拟分析了上述三个层面的变动对中国测算结果的影响,并基于模拟研究的结论从方法和实践上为ICP未来的改进提供政策建议。Based on the regional comparison method adopted by the International Comparison Program(ICP), this paper uses the price and expenditure data of 155 basic headings of 154 economies in year 2011 to simulate and analyze the effects of changes in data quality, aggregation methods, and regional affiliation of economies on the estimation results of purchasing power parity in ICP. Simulation results show that for data quality, the greater the share of a certain expenditure category in the economy’s total expenditure, the greater the impact of the data quality of the expenditure category on the results. On average, the data quality of food and non-alcoholic beverages, construction products, and housing services has the greatest impact on the results. It is further found that when we keep the price deviation the same, the impact of the downward adjustment of the price on the results is greater than that of the upward adjustment.For aggregation methods, changes in global aggregation methods and intra-regional aggregation methods have significant heterogeneous effects, and the results are more sensitive to changes in intra-regional aggregation methods. For the regional affiliation of the economy, it is shown that the results are closely related to regional affiliation. The economies in the West Asia and CIS region are most susceptible to the changes in regional division, while economies in the EU-OECD region are the least affected. This paper also conducts a simulation study in the influence of the above three factors on China’s PPP results. Finally, specific policy suggestions are given for the future improvement of ICP methods and practices.

关 键 词：国际比较项目 购买力平价 数据质量 汇总方法 区域化方法 

分 类 号：F222.5[经济管理—国际贸易]