近58年甘肃气候变化区域差异分析及环流影响  

Regional Difference Analysis of Climate Change in Gansu Province in Recent 58 Years and Its Impact on Circulation

作　　者：菅煜婷 张勃[1] 黄浩 JIAN Yuting;ZHANG Bo;HUANG Hao(College of Geography and Environmental Sciences,Northwest Normal University,Lanzhou 730070,Gansu,China)

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,甘肃兰州730070

出　　处：《高原气象》2022年第5期1291-1301,共11页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41561024)。

摘　　要：根据甘肃省1962-2019年降水量、平均气温、最高和最低气温的格点数据,通过最小二乘法、基于自适应噪声的完备经验模态分解法(Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise,CEEMDAN)、交叉小波变换法、小波相干法以及Hurst指数法等方法,分析了近58年甘肃气候变化区域差异及环流影响,结果表明:(1)线性趋势分析显示近58年甘肃气候整体朝暖湿化方向发展,升温趋势比降水量增加趋势更显著.空间分析显示近58年甘肃省不同地区气候变化差异非常大,除河西地区外,其他地区降水量均呈减少趋势.甘南高寒湿润区降水量减少幅度最大,气温增幅也最大.(2)由CEEMDAN分析可知,甘肃降水量增加周期为9年左右,减少周期为12年左右.平均气温的升、降周期均为7年左右.最高气温的升高周期为7年左右,降低周期为9年左右.最低气温的升高周期为7年左右,降低周期为5年左右.整体上,甘肃气温变化要比降水变化提前约15年,最低气温变化最早,从1962年开始明显升高,降水变化最晚,从1992年开始明显增加.(3)Hurst指数分析显示,各分区气候变化均具有较强的延续性,未来甘肃省气候变化趋势将与1962-2019年的变化趋势大体一致.(4)通过监测Nino3.4指数与甘肃分区气候变化的关系可知,陇南南部河谷亚热带湿润区、陇南北部暖温带湿润区、陇中南部温带半湿润区、陇中北部温带半干旱区四个分区的年平均降水量和ENSO事件均呈显著负相关关系,负相关系数分别为-0.29,-0.27,-0.29和-0.3,均通过了0.05的信度检验;陇中北部温带半干旱区的最高气温和ENSO事件呈显著正相关关系,正相关系数为0.28,且通过了0.05的信度检验.(5)交叉小波变换和小波相干分析显示,陇中南部温带半湿润区、陇中北部温带半干旱区的降雨量与ENSO的协同变化关系具有较高的一致性.According to the grid point data of precipitation,average temperature,maximum and minimum temperature in Gansu Province from 1962 to 2019,combined with climate zoning,and using the methods of least squares,CEEMDAN analysis,cross wavelet transforms,wavelet coherence and Hurst Index,etc.,analysis of regional differences in climate change and circulation effects in Gansu over the past 58 years.The results showed that:(1)The linear trend analysis shows that the climate of Gansu has been warming and wetting in recent 58years,and the warming trend is more significant than the precipitation increase trend.Spatial analysis shows that climate change varies greatly in different regions of Gansu province in the past 58 years,with the exception of the Hexi region,the precipitation in other regions shows a decreasing trend.Gannan’s cold and humid regions experienced the largest decreases in precipitation and the largest increases in temperature.(2)According to CEEMDAN analysis,the period of precipitation increase is about 9 years and the period of precipitation decrease is about 12 years in Gansu province.The average temperature rises and fall cycle is about 7 years.The cycle of maximum temperature increase is about 7 years,and the cycle of decrease is about 9 years.The rising cycle of minimum temperature is about 7 years,and the decreasing cycle is about 5 years.Overall,the change of temperature in Gansu province is about 15 years earlier than that of precipitation.The lowest temperature change is the earliest,and it began to increase obviously from 1962,and the precipitation change is the latest and began to increase obviously from 1992.(3)The Hurst index analysis shows that the climate change in each region has a strong continuity,and the future climate change trend in Gansu Province will be roughly consistent with that in1962-2019.(4)By monitoring the relationship between the Nino3.4 index and regional climate change in Gansu,the mean annual precipitation and ENSO events in the subtropical humid region of the southern S

关 键 词：气候变化 CEEMDAN 交叉小波变换法 小波相干法 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]