外部失衡是否导致了全球化进程受阻?  

Does External Imbalance Hinder the Process of Globalization?

作　　者：汪青 陆茸 杨权[3] Wang Qing;Lu Rong;Yang Quan(School of International Economics and Trade, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;College of Marxism,Sichuan University;School of Economics, Xiamen University)

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学国际经贸学院 [2]四川大学马克思主义学院 [3]厦门大学经济学院

出　　处：《国际金融研究》2022年第12期3-13,共11页Studies of International Finance

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目“平台经济的运行机制及演进趋势研究”(22CKS049);国家社会科学基金“一带一路”建设研究专项“共建‘一带一路’中的债务可持续性问题研究”(19VDL008)资助。

摘　　要：全球失衡被认为是引发“逆全球化”的重要原因,但聚焦于经常账户的贸易失衡难以反映真实的失衡状况。本文同时将金融失衡和贸易失衡纳入综合性外部失衡指标,选取1985—2018年主要经济体的面板数据,探讨一国外部失衡对其全球化参与程度的影响。研究发现:一国外部失衡的加剧显著降低了其全球化参与程度,进而阻碍了全球化进程,这一阻碍作用更多体现在经济全球化层面。异质性分析表明:外部失衡对全球化的抑制作用在中高收入、金融发展程度较低、经常账户处于持续性逆差和沿海经济体中更为稳健和显著。机制检验表明:一国外部失衡会通过贸易和金融活动限制渠道引致其“逆全球化”行为。本文研究为探寻和理解引致“逆全球化”行为的原因提供线索,有助于从“贸易调节”和“金融调节”层面合理引导一国全球化参与行为,并为遏制“逆全球化”行为提供相关政策启示。Global imbalance is considered to be an important cause of “de-globalization”.However,the imbalance measurement confined to the current account is difficult to fully reflect the true extent of the imbalance.Especially in the context of the increasing scale of global asset transactions,the problem of financial imbalance has become increasingly prominent.This article incorporates financial imbalance and trade imbalance into comprehensive external imbalance,and calculates the external imbalance of major economies from 1985 to 2018.Combined with the KOF Globalization Index,this article explores the influence of country’s external imbalance on its participation in globalization.The research finds that the increase in external imbalance has significantly reduced their participation in globalization,and then hinders the overall globalization process,which is reflected more in the level of economic globalization.The validity of the conclusion has been verified in a series of robust tests.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the restraining effect of external imbalance on globalization is more significant and robust in countries with middle-high income,lower degree financial development,persistent current account deficit and coastal economies.Mechanism test reveals that external imbalance leads to “de-globalization” behavior through channels of restricting trade and financial activities.This paper helps to provide clues to more clearly explore and understand the cause of the “de-globalization” wave.It is also beneficial to rationally guide a country’s participation in globalization from the “trade regulation” and “financial regulation”,and provide relevant policy enlightenment for curbing “de-globalization” behavior.

关 键 词：外部失衡 金融 贸易 逆全球化 全球经济治理 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]